Commit Graph

134 Commits

Author SHA1 Message Date
jgrusewski
f68e0a1d0d revert(loader): multi-resolution default '1:32' (single-scale) after htpp6 falsification
The Phase 1 multi-resolution layout (10 raw + 10 agg@30 + 12 agg@100)
regressed ALL horizons in alpha-perception-htpp6 (2026-05-22):
- auc_h100:  0.681 -> 0.512  (-0.169)
- auc_h300:  0.617 -> 0.506  (-0.111)
- auc_h1000: 0.576 -> 0.526  (-0.050)

Hypothesis falsified. Root cause: Mamba2+CfC SSM encoder already used
all 32 raw ticks effectively via state-recurrence; replacing 22 raw
ticks with arithmetic-mean aggregates destroyed within-window
microstructure variance (the actual h100 signal) AND broke temporal
continuity that the recurrence relies on. Δt Fourier encoder
couldn't compensate.

Architectural pearl: SSM/RNN/CfC + multi-resolution input is
incompatible without separate-encoder-per-scale or explicit scale
tokens. Transformer-style positional encoding tolerates scale-mixing;
recurrent state updates assume consecutive positions.

Reverts default to '1:32'. Adds explicit single_scale_32() constructor
for callers (harness, tests). Keeps default_three_scale() in code with
deprecation note for future sub-variant experiments. Production
defaults across alpha_train CLI, Argo template, dispatcher script,
ml-backtesting harness now match the proven baseline.
2026-05-22 21:21:21 +02:00
jgrusewski
b1bfae2367 feat(argo): replace --seq-len with --multi-resolution in alpha-perception
Default '1:10,30:10,100:12' (32 positions, 1510-tick context).
Greenfield migration — no legacy seq-len fallback. Operators
override per-run via './scripts/argo-alpha-perception.sh --multi-resolution 1:32'
for the parity-check config.
2026-05-22 20:45:21 +02:00
jgrusewski
78a9e08358 feat(loader): InstrumentFilter::FrontMonth for cross-quarter ES.FUT data
Replaces Option<u32> instrument_id_filter with InstrumentFilter enum {All,
Id(u32), FrontMonth}. FrontMonth runs a two-pass detect over the DBN
stream: pass 1 counts instrument_ids and collects SymbolMapping records,
picks the dominant id, validates it resolves to an ES contract via regex
ES[FGHJKMNQUVXZ]\d{1,2}; pass 2 streams the filtered records.

Motivated by alpha-perception-k54wd: a single-id filter on parent-symbol
ES.FUT data caught Q1 2024 (kept=73M) but kept=0 for Q2-Q9 because ES
front-month rolls quarterly (ESH4 -> ESM4 -> ESU4 -> ESZ4 ...). FrontMonth
self-tunes across the rolls without needing a per-file id table.

Sidecar keys distinguish modes: mbp10 / mbp10_instr<id> / mbp10_front_month.
CLI flag renamed --instrument-id -> --instrument-mode {all,id=N,front-month}
with matching parameter rename in argo-alpha-perception.sh + template.
2026-05-22 17:38:41 +02:00
jgrusewski
11c658d3fb feat(argo): plumb --instrument-id flag through alpha-perception script + template
Adds new workflow parameter instrument-id (default empty string = no filter).
Script forwards via --instrument-id CLI flag to alpha_train when non-empty.
EXTRA_FLAGS template logic appends --instrument-id only when set.

kubectl apply must run first (per feedback_argo_template_must_apply) so the
cluster CRD reflects the new parameter before argo submit.
2026-05-22 15:57:47 +02:00
jgrusewski
0d9fbc16b0 refactor(per-horizon): N_HORIZONS 5→3 — sweep configs + generator script
5 sweep YAMLs updated to reference the new checkpoint filename:
- config/ml/sweep_smoke.yaml: trunk_best_h6000.bin → trunk_best_h1000.bin
- config/ml/sweep_perhoriz_diag.yaml: same
- config/ml/sweep_threshold_tuning.yaml: same
- config/ml/sweep_deployability.yaml: same
- config/ml/sweep_smoke_perhoriz_cfc.yaml: same + 3 comment updates
  (WIN-gate criteria, header doc, best-checkpoint annotation)

scripts/generate_sweep_variants.py:61 updated atomically — without this
the next regeneration of sweep_deployability.yaml would silently
re-introduce trunk_best_h6000.bin.

Argo workflow templates (alpha-perception, alpha-cv, lob-backtest-sweep)
did NOT need text changes — they're already horizon-agnostic:
- They forward CLI flags via {{workflow.parameters.*}} to binaries
- Don't grep alpha_train_summary.json inline
- Don't reference per-horizon field names
- early-stop-metric default is "mean_auc" (horizon-agnostic)

Intentionally left:
- alpha-cv-template.yaml stacker-horizon: "6000" (unrelated TFT lookback)
- alpha-cv-template.yaml horizon: "1200" (DQN execution horizon in bars)
- lob-backtest-sweep-template.yaml ci-training-h100 (GPU pool name)

NOTE: kubectl apply of workflow templates is deferred to Task 10 (push
+ dispatch). Verified all 5 sweep YAMLs parse with python3 yaml.safe_load.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-22 01:40:13 +02:00
jgrusewski
ba2850b448 feat(argo): run-sweep template + batched-mode in argo-lob-sweep.sh
Closes the operational gap from P6: when a sweep grid YAML carries
sim_variants, argo-lob-sweep.sh now emits ONE run-sweep-batched task
instead of N fan-out run-cell tasks. The new run-sweep template
invokes `fxt-backtest sweep` against the full grid (base64-encoded
inline as Argo parameter to avoid YAML special-char encoding traps).

The binary's P6 sweep() function handles cell × variant fan-out
internally via BatchedSimConfig::from_grid, so one pod processes all
4 windows × 140 variants sequentially. Trade-off: no inter-window
parallelism in this rev (4 quarters sequential in one pod ≈ firm-bound
2h wall per spec §9). 3-pod scale-out is P7 future work — needs the
script to split the YAML into per-window sub-grids and emit one
run-sweep task per sub-grid.

Backward-compat: legacy (no sim_variants) flow unchanged. The dry-run
of sweep_smoke.yaml continues to emit run-cell-* fan-out tasks; the
dry-run of sweep_deployability.yaml emits one run-sweep-batched task.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-19 18:15:22 +02:00
jgrusewski
9d4fda36ab feat(ml-backtesting): batched-cell sweep schema + 140-variant runner (P6)
Sweep YAML now supports the batched flow per spec §3.3 + Task 6:
- SweepBase.sim_variants: Vec<SimVariant> — list of (cost, latency,
  threshold, ...) variants. When non-empty, each cell runs ONE harness
  at n_parallel=variants.len() with BatchedSimConfig::from_grid instead
  of the legacy one-harness-per-cell fan-out.
- SweepBase.data_template: Option<String> — when set with `{window}`
  placeholder, each cell's `window` field interpolates the per-cell
  data path. Replaces single scalar `data` for the windowed flow.
- SweepCell.window: Option<String> — window identifier (e.g., "2025-Q2").
- SimVariant: threshold + cost_per_lot_per_side required (the spec's
  primary axes); other fields optional overrides on top of SweepBase
  scalars.

New runner pieces:
- BatchedSimConfig::from_grid(&[ResolvedSimVariant]) in
  crates/ml-backtesting/src/sim/batched_config.rs.
- ResolvedSimVariant — per-variant fully-resolved sim params.
- resolve_sim_variants(&SweepBase) in main.rs — layers per-variant
  overrides over base scalars.
- run_batched_cell() in main.rs — builds the harness with
  sim_config_override + variant_names plumbed through. Writes per-
  backtest artifacts to sim_<variant_name>/ subdirs (spec §3.3).

Harness side:
- BacktestHarnessConfig gains variant_names + sim_config_override
  Option fields. When sim_config_override is Some, harness uses that
  directly instead of building from_uniform off scalar cfg. When
  variant_names is Some, write_artifacts uses sim_<name>/ instead of
  cell_NNNN/ subdirs. Both None preserve legacy single-cell behaviour
  (smoke, fixtures unchanged).

YAML configs:
- config/ml/sweep_threshold_tuning.yaml: 1 cell (W0) × 8 sim_variants
  (p60-p95 in 5pt steps) with cost=0.125 (1-tick anchor). Threshold
  pre-registration pass.
- config/ml/sweep_deployability.yaml: 4 cells (W1-W4) × 140 variants
  each (7 costs × 4 latencies × 5 thresholds). Generated by
  scripts/generate_sweep_variants.py — placeholder threshold values
  (p60-p95) until threshold-tuning publishes calibrated absolutes to
  config/ml/v2_prod_thresholds.json.

Deferred to P7 (operational glue):
- argo-lob-sweep.sh adaptation for the batched flow (cells = windows,
  not sim-variants; one Argo task per window invokes `fxt-backtest sweep`
  end-to-end inside the pod rather than `fxt-backtest run`).

Regression: all 7 existing CUDA tests pass through the new harness
construction path (sim_config_override = None → from_uniform fallback).

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-19 17:41:20 +02:00
jgrusewski
ed0d40f469 fix(scripts): argo-lob-sweep awk anchor + sweep_smoke YAML schema
argo-lob-sweep.sh's awk substitution for # __SWEEP_CELLS__ matched BOTH
the actual marker (line 110, whitespace-indented) AND the docstring
reference at the top of the template that mentions `# __SWEEP_CELLS__`
inside a sentence (line 8). Result: cell task was injected twice,
once before `apiVersion:` (breaking kubectl apply with 'invalid object'
validation error) and once at the correct DAG location.

Fix: anchor the match to lines that START with whitespace + the marker
(^[[:space:]]+# __SWEEP_CELLS__), so the docstring sentence (which has
'# The' first) no longer matches.

sweep_smoke.yaml: rewrite from the spec's idealised (axes:/windows:)
schema to the actual base:/cells: schema that fxt-backtest sweep +
argo-lob-sweep.sh parse. Hardcodes SHA 58b5ebbd3 (the production
training run); bounds smoke runtime via max_events=100000.

Verified: smoke sweep workflow lob-backtest-sweep-hxwmq submits cleanly
and starts running.
2026-05-19 11:24:20 +02:00
jgrusewski
62b1fc0965 infra(argo): lob-backtest-sweep workflow + argo-lob-sweep.sh (C19)
Cluster fan-out for the `fxt-backtest sweep` single-machine path.
Reads the same grid YAML format as the binary; runs each cell on a
dedicated GPU pod in parallel; aggregates at the end on a CPU pod.

infra/k8s/argo/lob-backtest-sweep-template.yaml:
  WorkflowTemplate `lob-backtest-sweep` with three job templates:
    ensure-binary  — cache-or-compile fxt-backtest by short-SHA into
                     /mnt/training-data/bin/<sha>/. Mirrors the
                     train-multi-seed-template.yaml ensure-binary
                     shape but for a single binary.
    run-cell       — single GPU pod (ci-training-l40s default per
                     feedback_default_to_l40s_pool.md). Receives
                     cell-name + every Run arg via inputs.parameters.
                     Writes artifacts to <sweep-root>/<sweep-tag>/<cell>/.
    aggregate      — CPU pod runs `fxt-backtest aggregate <sweep-dir>`
                     producing aggregate.parquet + pareto_frontier.json
                     at the sweep root.
  DAG marker `# __SWEEP_CELLS__` replaced at submission time with N
  WorkflowTask stanzas (one per cell), and the aggregate's
  `dependencies: [ensure-binary]` is rewritten to include every
  run-cell-* dep — so aggregate waits for ALL cells.

scripts/argo-lob-sweep.sh:
  Companion submission script following the argo-train.sh pattern.
  Parses the grid YAML via python3 + PyYAML (no `yq` dependency —
  yq isn't used elsewhere in foxhunt scripts; python3+PyYAML is
  universal in our CI images). Emits per-cell WorkflowTask stanzas
  + aggregate dependency list, awks them into the template, then
  `kubectl apply` + `argo submit`. Supports --dry-run for offline
  rendering and --watch for live log following.

Defaults match the spec / pearl set:
  - sm_89 / ci-training-l40s default (override via --gpu-pool
    ci-training-h100 for sm_90 + 80 GB)
  - data root /mnt/training-data/futures-baseline/ES.FUT
  - sweep results under /mnt/training-data/sweeps/lob-backtest/<tag>/
  - sweep-tag defaults to <basename of grid>-<short-sha>

Verified locally:
  - bash -n syntax-check passes
  - --help renders
  - --dry-run against the existing
    config/ml/sweep_decision_stride_example.yaml renders a valid
    workflow with 4 cells + correct aggregate dependency list

Live submission is operational work that needs cluster access to
verify; the rendered YAML follows the same conventions as the
existing argo-train.sh workflows that ship in this repo.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-18 10:18:09 +02:00
jgrusewski
70d5fc29cf feat(ml-alpha): decision-stride loader + CLI + Mamba2 dt_s scaling (Phase 2A)
Decision-stride S lets a length-K sequence span ((K-1)*S + 1) raw
snapshots instead of K consecutive ones — expands the effective
time-window covered by each sequence at the same K-positions compute
cost. With K=64 and S=4, the window covers 256 ticks (~5s on ES MBP-10
at 20ms-tick) instead of 64 ticks (~1.3s).

Loader (crates/ml-alpha/src/data/loader.rs):
- `MultiHorizonLoaderConfig.decision_stride: usize` (default 1, must
  pre-existing call sites add the new field).
- `next_sequence` reads snapshot at `anchor + k * stride`; labels at the
  same indices (labels stay in absolute-snapshot horizons regardless of
  stride, e.g. h=6000 always means "predict 6000 raw snapshots forward").
- `prev` snapshot for microstructure features (prev_mid, prev_ts_ns)
  now points to the prior K-position (`anchor + (k-1)*stride`), NOT the
  consecutive-snapshot prior, so `Δt = ts_ns - prev_ts_ns` carries the
  actual elapsed time between K-positions (consumed by Mamba2's dt_s and
  the planned Phase 2C TGN Fourier features).
- New `#[ignore]` real-data test: `loader_stride_4_yields_correct_spacing`
  asserts Δt monotonicity at stride=4.

Mamba2 dt_s (crates/ml-alpha/src/trainer/perception.rs):
- `PerceptionTrainerConfig.decision_stride: usize` plumbs the stride
  through. dispatch_train_step + evaluate_batched now use
  `dt_s = decision_stride as f32` so Mamba2's selective scan
  `exp(-dt * sigmoid(a))` reflects the real elapsed time. With stride=1
  the behaviour is identical to before.

CLI (crates/ml-alpha/examples/alpha_train.rs):
- `--decision-stride <S>` flag (default 1) wired into both train and val
  loaders + PerceptionTrainerConfig.

Argo workflow:
- `decision-stride` parameter on the template (default "1") +
  `--decision-stride` script flag + propagation into the train pod's
  alpha_train invocation.

Synthetic smoke (tests/perception_overfit.rs):
- `stacked_trainer_loss_shrinks_with_stride_4` proves the trainer-level
  dt_s=4.0 keeps the Mamba2+LN+CfC+GRN chain numerically stable.
  Converges 0.32 → 0.0000 (matches stride=1 smoke trajectory — dt_s
  scaling didn't break the SSM dynamics).

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-17 22:04:38 +02:00
jgrusewski
eb51c0f9cd feat(ml-alpha): walk-forward CV via file-list-driven loader
mhzs7 reported val mean_auc=0.726 on 3a196382f — but the trainer
constructed both train and val MultiHorizonLoader with the SAME
`mbp10_root: cli.mbp10_data_dir`. The two loaders only differed by
seed. So val sequences were held-out-by-anchor from the same files
train sampled from; not temporally OOS. Per
`pearl_single_window_oos_is_not_oos.md` a single-window result that
doesn't enforce time-ordered separation can collapse across true
walk-forward folds.

Refactor: drop `mbp10_root` from `MultiHorizonLoaderConfig` (which
forced caller to share the dir between train and val). New API takes
an explicit `files: Vec<PathBuf>` — the loader preserves the order
given and does no internal shuffle, so callers control temporal
ordering. Added `discover_mbp10_files_sorted(root)` helper that
enumerates a dir and sorts by filename (chronological under the
`ES.FUT_<YEAR>-Q<n>.dbn.zst` convention).

alpha_train.rs splits the discovered files by 3 new CLI flags:
  --cv-fold <k>            (default 0)
  --cv-n-folds <N>         (default 1 — single fold)
  --cv-train-window <W>    (default 0 — auto)

Single-fold default (cv_n_folds=1): train on all files except the
last, val on the last file. This replaces the old "same files for
both" bug; even runs that don't think about CV now get a temporal
split by default.

Sliding-window CV (cv_n_folds > 1): fold k trains on files
[k..k+W] and validates on file [k+W]. With 9 quarterly files
(2024-Q1..2026-Q1) and `--cv-n-folds 3`, the natural layout is:

  fold 0: train 2024-Q1..2024-Q4 (W=4) → val 2025-Q1
  fold 1: train 2024-Q2..2025-Q1       → val 2025-Q2
  fold 2: train 2024-Q3..2025-Q2       → val 2025-Q3
  blind holdout: 2025-Q4, 2026-Q1

Threaded the flags through scripts/argo-alpha-perception.sh and
infra/k8s/argo/alpha-perception-template.yaml so each fold submits
as an independent workflow.

Updated tests/multi_horizon_loader.rs to the new API:
  loader_yields_seq_with_valid_labels — exercises discover + load.
  loader_errors_on_empty_files       — replaces missing-root test.
  discover_errors_on_missing_root    — pinpoints the discover step.

Honors:
  - feedback_no_partial_refactor.md — every consumer migrated atomically.
  - feedback_no_legacy_aliases.md — no `mbp10_root` shim left behind.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-17 16:36:48 +02:00
jgrusewski
26d91a816c feat(alpha_train): configurable early-stop metric (default mean_auc)
cnjfl evidence: val_loss and mean_auc disagree.
  val_loss best at e3 (0.5592)
  mean_auc best at e4 (0.7670 — new h300 + h6000 peaks)

For downstream trading, ranking quality (AUC) matters more than
probability calibration (BCE loss). New default is mean_auc-based
early stopping, but val_loss/none remain selectable.

AUC is noisier than loss epoch-to-epoch (1-2pt bounces are common
even when long-horizon AUCs are still drifting up under
auto-horizon-weights), so patience defaults bump from 3 → 5.

CLI:  --early-stop-metric {val_loss|mean_auc|none}   default mean_auc
      --early-stop-patience N                         default 5

Argo template parameters added with matching defaults.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-17 11:48:21 +02:00
jgrusewski
affb0e24cf infra(argo): plumb --batch-size + --auto-horizon-weights through template
Adds two new workflow parameters with backward-compatible defaults
(batch-size=1, auto-horizon-weights=false) so existing submissions
behave identically. Both flags are forwarded to alpha_train CLI.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-17 10:44:24 +02:00
jgrusewski
4514313793 infra(argo): use decimal seed value — clap u64 parser rejects hex
alpha_train --seed is clap-typed as u64, and clap's default u64
parser only accepts decimal digits. Previous default "0x4242"
hit "invalid digit found in string" at startup.

Replace with decimal equivalent 16962 (= 0x4242) in both the
submission script default and the workflow template default.

Long-term: could add a custom clap value_parser that accepts
hex/dec/oct prefixes, but for now decimal-only matches the
foxhunt convention in other CLIs (alpha_baseline, etc.).

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-17 00:09:43 +02:00
jgrusewski
d2bfeaa983 infra(argo): check-cache pre-stage — skip ensure-binary on cache hit
Adds a tiny alpine pod (check-cache) that runs first on the platform
pool (no autoscaler delay, ~3 sec end-to-end) and probes the
training-data PVC for /data/bin/$SHA/alpha_train. Outputs:
  - sha:   short SHA used for binary cache keying
  - cache: "hit" or "miss"

ensure-binary now has `when: cache == miss` — when the binary is
already cached for the current SHA, the entire ~4.8GB ci-builder
image pull + sccache compile cycle is skipped. Re-runs on the same
SHA now go straight from submission to training in ~30 seconds
instead of ~3 minutes.

train depends on check-cache + ensure-binary; sources the SHA from
check-cache's output (works whether ensure-binary ran or was
skipped — Argo treats `when:` skip as a satisfied dependency).

Submission script (scripts/argo-alpha-perception.sh) now pre-resolves
commit-sha=HEAD to an actual git SHA via `git rev-parse origin/<branch>`
before submission. This lets the alpine check-cache pod work without
installing git in the container.

Also removed the now-stale `ci-training-h100x2|ci-training-h100-sxm`
case branch from the SM-arch detection — those pools no longer exist
post-pool-cleanup commit a252119fd.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-16 23:56:19 +02:00
jgrusewski
522178b2a7 infra(argo): alpha-perception workflow + submission script
Argo WorkflowTemplate at infra/k8s/argo/alpha-perception-template.yaml
runs the stacked Mamba2 -> CfC -> heads PerceptionTrainer on a single
L40S in fr-par-2. Two-stage DAG:
  ensure-binary  (ci-compile-cpu pool, sccache-backed cargo build of
                  alpha_train example, SHA-keyed binary cache under
                  /data/bin/$SHORT_SHA/)
  train          (ci-training-l40s pool, runs the cached binary against
                  /data/futures-baseline/mbp10 with predecoded sidecar
                  cache at /feature-cache/predecoded, writes
                  alpha_train_summary.json to
                  /feature-cache/alpha-perception-runs/$SHA/)

Defaults mirror the validated synthetic-overfit smoke config:
  epochs=5, seq_len=32, mamba2_state_dim=16, lr_cfc=3e-3,
  lr_mamba2=1e-3, n_train_seqs=8000, n_val_seqs=1000, seed=0x4242

Submission script scripts/argo-alpha-perception.sh wraps argo submit
with the standard L40S/H100 cuda-compute-cap mapping. --watch
follows logs.

Workflow nodeSelector pinned to fr-par-2 (consistent with the cluster
topology constraint). ttlStrategy 1h after completion;
activeDeadlineSeconds 4h cap (well above expected ~30-90 min wall).

This is the cluster entrypoint for the stacked perception design.
Once it lands a summary on MinIO, the gate runner (alpha_gate, Task
17) can consume it.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-16 23:10:37 +02:00
jgrusewski
10f4bcc15b feat(alpha): decision-stride + cluster 9-fold CV workflow
Two complementary additions to validate the minute-horizon alpha
hypothesis at IBKR-realistic costs:

1. `alpha_baseline --decision-stride N`: emits a new action every N
   steps; between decisions force action=0 (wait) so an open position
   is held rather than re-decided per bar. Cuts per-bar trade counts
   ~stride× and removes the coin-flip overtrading. Local 2Q sweep
   showed stride=200 + scaled training (8K episodes × 25 envs × H=1200)
   flipped Sharpe at ¼-tick from -4.29 (per-bar, 3-fold mean) to +1.78,
   with std collapsing from ±8.8 to ±1.15. Break-even cost moved from
   <¼-tick to ~1-tick — for the first time positive at IBKR-realistic
   passive-execution frictions.

2. `alpha_train_stacker --max-rows N`: optional cap on bars consumed
   from the fxcache. Used during local 2Q smoke (--max-rows 4M against
   the 17.8M-row 9Q fxcache) to fit Mamba2 training on a 4 GB consumer
   GPU; on the cluster (--no-cap) it sees all 9Q.

3. New Argo workflow `alpha-cv`: standalone template that compiles
   alpha_train_stacker + alpha_baseline + alpha_fill_coeffs.json,
   trains the stacker on the 9Q fxcache, then runs 9 sequential
   walk-forward folds of alpha_baseline on disjoint 1.9M-bar windows
   (one per quarter). Launcher script `scripts/argo-alpha-cv.sh`
   mirrors argo-train.sh conventions.

The local 2Q test that motivated this commit is summarised inline in
the alpha-cv template comments; the verdict was "framing was the bug —
once decision cadence matches the multi-minute alpha horizon, the
strategy is positive at IBKR commission".

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-16 18:04:34 +02:00
jgrusewski
34586dad68 refactor(alpha_baseline): rename, drop conditionals, strip dead paths
Rename binary alpha_compose_backtest → alpha_baseline and remove the
boolean flags whose features are now mandatory:

  --c51            (always C51 distributional Q)
  --temporal       (always Mamba2 temporal encoder)
  --isv-continual  (controller always fires per eval episode)
  --regime-scale   (vol-EMA regime defense always on)
  --pruned-actions (FALSIFIED 2026-05-15 per pearl_action_pruning_falsified)

Every dependent code path was stripped, not just gated:

- Linear-Q kernels (lq_fwd, lq_grad, munch_kernel) and their cubin loads
  are gone — C51 is the only Q-network.
- Single-env push_kernel / h_store_kernel loads removed; the backtest
  has been batched-parallel-env since T14 and only the _batched
  variants are called here. (The smoke binary still uses single-env
  variants because one env per episode is its job.)
- Dead transition buffers removed: states_dev, next_states_dev,
  actions_dev, rewards_dev, dones_dev, q_current_dev, q_next_dev,
  target_dev, single_state_dev, single_q_dev, probs_current_dev,
  probs_next_dev, m_dev, single_probs_dev, single-env state_pinned,
  action_pinned, window_tensor, h_enriched_buf_dev.
- Dead constants and helpers: PRUNED_ACTIONS, N_WEIGHTS, N_BIASES,
  epsilon_greedy, epsilon_greedy_gated.

End-to-end verification on the existing Q1 fxcache (rebuild was OOM
locally; full multi-quarter validation is the next phase):

  cost=0.0000  best τ=0.250  Sharpe_ann=+36.83  win=0.984  trades/ep=83.3
  cost=0.0625  best τ=0.250  Sharpe_ann=+38.53  win=0.996  trades/ep=83.2
  cost=0.1250  best τ=0.250  Sharpe_ann=+38.37  win=0.994  trades/ep=83.3
  cost=0.2500  best τ=0.250  Sharpe_ann=+34.24  win=0.990  trades/ep=85.6
  cost=0.5000  best τ=0.250  Sharpe_ann=+31.83  win=0.946  trades/ep=84.8

Numbers track the prior T16-flag config (within stochastic noise),
confirming the conditional-stripping was a pure simplification — no
behavioral change, just a smaller, honester binary.

Also updated:
- scripts/alpha_pipeline.sh — A/B conditions collapse to fixed-cost
  vs cost-randomized training (the only opt-in left).
- scripts/walk_forward_cv.sh — drop legacy flags, pass --window-k only.
- crates/ml/src/env/loaders.rs — module doc-comment updated.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-16 01:02:44 +02:00
jgrusewski
55ffe2b26f scripts(alpha): rename + add cross-quarter validation pipeline
- New scripts/alpha_pipeline.sh: orchestrates the 2-quarter validation
  after fxcache lands. Auto-discovers the Q1+Q2 fxcache (newest
  .fxcache excluding the known Q1-only hash), trains
  alpha_train_stacker on it, then sweeps 4 conditions
  (baseline / +cost-rand / +regime-scale / +both) × 3 walk-forward
  folds, aggregating mean ± stddev Sharpe per cost across folds.
  No phase prefixes in name or contents — the script is meant to
  outlive any single milestone.

- scripts/build_2q_fxcache.sh: fix staging layout so MBP-10 / trades
  / OHLCV symlinks live in the symbol subdir (`mbp10/ES.FUT/...`)
  that precompute_features expects. Previous flat-layout build
  aborted with "MBP-10 directory not found: .../mbp10/ES.FUT".

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-16 00:42:07 +02:00
jgrusewski
d090685ca9 feat(phase-e-4-a-T16): vol-regime detection + cost-aware training
Adds two coupled interventions on the regime fragility exposed by
walk-forward CV (mean Sharpe +27 ± 56 at half-tick across 3 folds —
std-dev ≈ mean means the strategy is regime-dependent).

(1) Vol-EMA regime detector (new ISV slots 549/550)
- New alpha_regime_vol_update.cu kernel: per inference step, reads B
  parallel-env mid prices, computes cross-env mean squared log-return,
  and maintains ISV[549]=REGIME_VOL_EMA (Wiener-α with 0.4 floor +
  Pearl A bootstrap) and ISV[550]=REGIME_VOL_REF (slow tracker β=0.005,
  ≈200-step horizon).
- Block-tree-reduce (no atomicAdd), guards against zero/non-finite mids.

(2) Pre-emptive Kelly attenuation (modified stacker controller)
- stacker_threshold_controller.cu takes 3 new args: regime_vol_ema_idx,
  regime_vol_ref_idx, regime_scale_floor.
- Multiplies its reactive Sharpe-error Kelly output by
    regime_scale = clamp(vol_ref / vol_ema, 0.25, 1.0)
- Disabled when indices = -1 (backward-compatible smoke + kernel test).

(3) Cost-aware training (--train-cost-hi)
- alpha_compose_backtest --train-cost-hi: when > --train-cost, each
  training epoch samples cost ~ U[lo, hi] so the Q-network learns
  cost-conservative behaviour across the realistic ES range.

(4) Wiring
- alpha_compose_backtest --regime-scale enables both per-step regime
  kernel firing during eval AND the regime hookup in the per-episode
  controller call. Mapped-pinned mids buffers, all compute device-side.
- ExecutionEnv exposes current_mid() so the host gather reads the
  active snapshot mid per env without leaking the private cursor field.

Smoke + test sites pass -1/-1 for regime indices (backward compat).
Doc: docs/isv-slots.md ledger for slots 549/550.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-16 00:28:01 +02:00
jgrusewski
3aef276255 feat(phase-e-4-a): walk-forward CV via --data-start-offset
Adds a sliding-window walk-forward harness for the T10 backtest:

- New load_snapshots_from_fxcache_at(start_offset, ...) loader variant
  reads bars [start_offset..start_offset+max_snapshots) from the fxcache.
  Alpha-cache lookups use absolute bar indices, so the same
  alpha_logits_cache.bin works across folds.
- New --data-start-offset CLI flag on alpha_compose_backtest.
- scripts/walk_forward_cv.sh runs 3 folds (window=700K, train_frac=0.6)
  at offsets 0 / 600K / 1.2M, producing /tmp/cv_fold_{A,B,C}.json plus
  an aggregated mean±stddev Sharpe table across folds.

Walk-forward result (alpha_logits_cache trained on bars 0..1.57M, so
fold C eval is fully past the stacker cut):

  cost     fold-A  fold-B  fold-C   mean ± stddev
  0.0000   +91.52  -21.44  +46.74   +38.94 ± 56.88
  0.0625   +84.94  -27.97  +38.42   +31.79 ± 56.74
  0.1250   +79.91  -31.22  +33.51   +27.40 ± 55.82
  0.2500   +72.77  -45.41  +15.16   +14.17 ± 59.09
  0.5000   +50.52  -59.82  -12.75    -7.35 ± 55.37

Fold B (mid-quarter, bars 600K..1.3M) is a disaster — win rate
collapses to 0-22% across all costs. Folds A and C succeed strongly.
Cross-fold SD ≈ mean, so the policy is regime-dependent and cannot
be reliably deployed without regime detection.

Mean Sharpe at half-tick (+27.40) is still ~7× the stateless
Phase 1d.4 baseline (-4.0), so the temporal encoder adds real value
on average — but the single-window +62 OOS celebrated earlier was
a cherry-picked favorable regime, not a deployment-ready result.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-16 00:02:24 +02:00
jgrusewski
8b8bb1af70 infra(argo): default GPU pool to ci-training-l40s (sm_89) per feedback_default_to_l40s_pool
SP-chain training has been standardising on L40S since 2026-05-09, but
every invocation required an explicit `--gpu-pool ci-training-l40s`
override. The 2026-05-04 train-mnpf7 incident (sm_90 cubins deployed
to an L40S device, then resubmitted with the explicit override) was
the last incident in a long line of "forgot the pool flag" friction.
`feedback_default_to_l40s_pool.md` codified the user preference; this
commit lands the default in the actual invocation paths.

Changes:

  - infra/k8s/argo/train-template.yaml: gpu-pool default H100 → L40S
  - infra/k8s/argo/train-multi-seed-template.yaml: same + cuda-compute
    -cap default 90 → 89
  - scripts/argo-train.sh: docstring / --help / compute-cap fallback
    case all flip to L40S as the bare default; H100 becomes opt-in via
    `--gpu-pool ci-training-h100` for 80 GB / sm_90 workloads
  - scripts/argo-test.sh: --help text aligned

Other architectural defaults (data-source=mbp10 per
feedback_mbp10_mandatory; imbalance-bar-threshold=20.0 per the 2026-
05-10 OOM-prevention fix) are already correct in the template.

Verified via `argo-train.sh dqn --branch sp20-aux-h-fixed --sha HEAD
--baseline --dry-run` — rendered workflow shows cuda-compute-cap=89,
no explicit gpu-pool override (template default L40S in effect).

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-14 14:22:19 +02:00
jgrusewski
14bafb5b58 fix(argo-train): apply train-template.yaml before single-job submission
The multi-seed path already does `kubectl apply` before `argo submit`,
so cluster template stays in sync with source. The single-job path used
`argo submit --from=wftmpl/train` directly, expecting the cluster's
template to already match — which silently drifts when defaults change.

Caused workflow train-jpxvn (2026-05-10) to dispatch with stale
imbalance-bar-threshold=0.5 default (the cluster's old value) when the
source had been bumped to 20.0. Triggered near-OOM in feature extraction.

One-line fix: apply the template before submission. Mirrors what
multi-seed already does. No behavior change for users who pass explicit
flags; just makes implicit defaults track source.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-10 17:47:44 +02:00
jgrusewski
abd7e533bc fix(architectural): volume_bar_size in cache key + OFI front-month filter
## Two architectural cleanups, both surfaced by the wgdc8 experiment

### Part 1: volume_bar_size in cache key

Mirrors the imbalance_bar_threshold/ewma_alpha fix from `f7718b376`. The
volume bar size constant (100 contracts/bar) was previously hardcoded and
not in the fxcache key. Tuning it would have hit the same fossilization
bug as imbalance_bar_threshold did pre-fix.

Changes:
- `Hyperparams.volume_bar_size: u64` field added (default 100, matches
  `DEFAULT_VOLUME_BAR_SIZE` for backwards compat).
- TrainingProfile loader reads `volume_bar_size` TOML key.
- `calculate_dbn_cache_key_full` signature 7 → 8 args. Hashed via
  `to_le_bytes()`. Test `test_cache_key_includes_volume_bar_size`
  added; passes alongside the 5 existing tests.
- 4 callers updated atomically (per `feedback_no_partial_refactor`):
  `discover_and_load`, `data_loading.rs:146`, `train_baseline_rl.rs:599`,
  `precompute_features.rs:259,720`.
- `data_loading.rs:279` now passes `self.hyperparams.volume_bar_size`
  to `build_volume_bars` instead of the hardcoded `DEFAULT_VOLUME_BAR_SIZE`.
- New `--volume-bar-size` CLI arg on both binaries (default 100).
- New Argo workflow params `volume-bar-size` (default "100") and
  `data-source` (default "mbp10") on both `train-template.yaml` and
  `train-multi-seed-template.yaml`. Threaded into precompute + trainer
  invocations.
- `scripts/argo-train.sh` exposes `--volume-bar-size <n>` and
  `--data-source <s>` for ad-hoc overrides.

### Part 2: OFI front-month filter (latent bug fix)

`crates/ml/examples/precompute_features.rs:539-557` (the OFI/VPIN/Kyle's
Lambda computation branch when MBP-10 + trades data is available) was
loading trades unfiltered for per-bar microstructure feature computation.
The volume bar formation path filters front-month per-file (line 354), but
the OFI path did not.

Effect pre-fix: during contract rollover windows (e.g., ESZ24 → ESH25),
OFI per-bar microstructure features included trades from BOTH contracts
simultaneously, distorting VPIN, Kyle's Lambda, and trade imbalance
signals. Severity in production: small (front-month dominates ES.FUT
volume by 10-100×) but real and present in every prior MBP-10+trades
production run.

Fix: mirror the per-file `filter_front_month` call from the volume bar
path. Volume bar formation and OFI computation now both see the same
in-month trade tape. Added log line shows raw vs filtered count per file
for transparency.

## Why bundled

Both fixes touch trade-data plumbing in `precompute_features.rs` and the
fxcache key contract. Per `feedback_no_partial_refactor`, related
architectural cleanups land atomically. Both surfaced from the same
wgdc8 audit; bundling avoids two cache-key-invalidating commits in
sequence (each would force full fxcache regen).

## Compatibility

- `volume_bar_size` defaults to 100 → existing wgdc7-equivalent runs
  reproduce, but with a *new* fxcache key (the f7718b376-era cache file
  is unreachable; harmless, can GC manually).
- OFI fix is strictly more correct; no opt-out needed. Existing models
  trained on contaminated OFI features may show slight feature
  distribution drift on first cache regen — expected, not a regression.
- `data_source = "ohlcv"` Argo param now possible; routes precompute
  through volume bar branch directly. wgdc8 experiment uses this to test
  bar resolution sensitivity at volume_bar_size=500 (5× DEFAULT).

Tests: 6/6 feature_cache tests pass. Workspace + examples compile clean.
Audit-doc: `docs/dqn-wire-up-audit.md` updated.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-09 22:55:33 +02:00
jgrusewski
f7718b3761 fix(architectural): include bar formation params in fxcache key + actually USE imbalance bars
## The bug (audit 2026-05-09)

`crates/ml/src/feature_cache.rs:calculate_dbn_cache_key_full` hashed only
`(symbol, data_source, dbn_filenames+sizes)` — NOT `imbalance_bar_threshold`
or `imbalance_bar_ewma_alpha`. Combined with `precompute_features.rs:346`
unconditionally calling `build_volume_bars` regardless of `data_source`,
this meant:

1. 14 audited production runs (Apr 11–May 8) all collided on the same
   fxcache key (`a3f933aa...` / `c07c960a...`) regardless of TOML
   `imbalance_bar_threshold` value
2. The imbalance-bar code path was reachable only via fxcache MISS, which
   never happens in production because `ensure-fxcache` always populates
   first
3. Every "tuning" of `imbalance_bar_threshold` across 16+ SP runs was a
   silent no-op — the system was actually running volume bars at
   DEFAULT_VOLUME_BAR_SIZE (100 contracts/bar)

## The fix (this commit)

**Part A — cache key includes bar formation params:**
- `calculate_dbn_cache_key_full` signature: 5 args → 7 args. Two new f64
  params hashed via `to_le_bytes()`.
- 4 callers updated atomically (per `feedback_no_partial_refactor`).
- 2 new unit tests (`test_cache_key_includes_bar_threshold`,
  `test_cache_key_includes_bar_alpha`) pin the contract.

**Part B — precompute_features actually USES data_source:**
- New CLI args `--imbalance-bar-threshold` (default 0.5) and
  `--imbalance-bar-ewma-alpha` (default 0.1) on both train_baseline_rl
  and precompute_features.
- `precompute_features.rs:346` now branches: when
  `data_source == "mbp10"` AND `mbp10_data_dir.is_some()`, calls
  `mbp10_to_imbalance_bars` instead of `build_volume_bars`.

**Argo plumbing:**
- `train-template.yaml` + `train-multi-seed-template.yaml`: new workflow
  parameters threaded into BOTH precompute and trainer invocations so
  both compute the same fxcache key.
- `scripts/argo-train.sh`: new CLI flags for ad-hoc overrides.
- ensure-fxcache regen path: removed `rm -f /feature-cache/*.fxcache`
  (with bar-params now in key, parallel experiments coexist).

## Effects going forward

- Tuning `imbalance_bar_threshold` actually changes bar density
- Configuring `data_source = "mbp10"` actually produces imbalance bars
- Multiple parallel experiments at different thresholds coexist on PVC
- `dqn-production.toml: imbalance_bar_threshold = 0.5` no longer ignored

Default values match prior production behavior → existing wgdc7-equivalent
runs reproduce, just with a *new* fxcache key (the old volume-bar cache
file is still on disk but won't be hit; harmless, can GC manually).

Audit-doc: `docs/dqn-wire-up-audit.md` updated with full context.
Tests: 5/5 feature_cache tests pass, full workspace + examples compile clean.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-09 22:04:50 +02:00
jgrusewski
b43413e4d3 feat(sp18 v2 P1.T1+T2): pre-dispatch consumer-audit script + pre-commit hook
Phase 1 Tasks 1.1 + 1.2 of docs/superpowers/plans/2026-05-08-sp18-reward-shape-hold-attractor.md.

Per the plan's audit-first design: surface every live reference to the
SP13/SP16 Hold-cost-scale chain (D-leg) and the TD(λ) `q_next = rewards`
self-bootstrap (B-leg) BEFORE atomic deletion. This catches the SP17-style
"missed quantile_q_select consumer" failure mode where a sweeping refactor
left a dangling reference that compiled but broke at runtime.

What lands

- `scripts/audit_sp18_consumers.sh` — 17-section grep that walks every
  consumer pattern from the plan's locked checklist (D-leg slot 380,
  461, [462..468) HCS_*, hold_cost_scale_update kernel, hold_rate_observer
  kernel retained chain, build.rs cubin manifest, state_layout.cuh
  mirror constants, state_reset_registry entries, plus B-leg
  td_lambda_kernel launch sites, q_next origin, rewards_out consumers,
  PER priority sites, replay buffer schema, c51_loss target-Q origin,
  target_params_buf consumers, PopArt slot 63 references). Three modes:
  default (full grep output), `--fingerprint` (per-section per-file hit
  count for diff-able snapshots), `--check` (diff fingerprint vs locked
  snapshot in docs/sp18-wireup-audit.md, exit 1 on drift).

- `docs/sp18-wireup-audit.md` — Phase 1 Task 1.1 outcome with two
  sections of import:
    1. The plan's locked checklist (8 entries the plan author explicitly
       identified as deletion targets).
    2. The 10 ADDITIONAL CONSUMERS surfaced by the audit (A1-A10) that
       the plan-author missed. Per the task input's halt-on-drift
       directive, Phase 1 Tasks 1.3-1.5 (atomic deletion) are HALTED
       pending human review of the expanded scope. The audit doc is the
       spec-amendment record.
    3. A locked fingerprint snapshot the pre-commit hook uses for drift
       detection on subsequent commits.
  B-leg verification confirms B-DD4 (no PER migration) + B-DD1 (target_
  params_buf reusable) + the single q_next bootstrap site at
  gpu_experience_collector.rs:4143.

- `scripts/pre-commit-hook.sh` — Invariant 7 list extended with the new
  audit doc; new `check_sp18_consumer_audit` step runs the audit script
  in `--check` mode whenever a commit touches the chain files
  (experience_kernels.cu, hold_*_kernel.cu, state_layout.cuh, sp1[3-8]_
  isv_slots.rs, gpu_dqn_trainer.rs, gpu_aux_trunk.rs, gpu_experience_
  collector.rs, state_reset_registry.rs, training_loop.rs, build.rs,
  sp1[3-8]_oracle_tests.rs). Drift triggers a hook failure with a
  pointer to the regeneration command. This is a generalisation of
  Invariant 7 and addresses Open Q-B from the spec (audit-as-pre-commit
  hook for SP-chain consumer drift).

Findings (HALT trigger)

The audit found 10 consumers NOT in the plan's locked 8-site checklist:
A1 — gpu_aux_trunk.rs:1240-1323 HoldCostScaleUpdateOps struct + impl
     (84 lines; the plan said launcher was in gpu_dqn_trainer but the
     real struct/impl lives in gpu_aux_trunk; trainer just has a thin
     forwarding method)
A2 — sp14_oracle_tests.rs:2174-2920 11 GPU oracle tests (~750 lines)
     directly exercising the deleted kernel via include_bytes!
     (sp16_phase2_hold_cost_scale_climbs_with_overrun + 10 others)
A3 — training_loop.rs:8971-9043 7 dispatch arms in reset_named_state
     (slot 461 + HCS_* slots 462-467); contract test
     every_fold_and_soft_reset_entry_has_dispatch_arm requires
     atomic deletion alongside registry entries
A4 — gpu_dqn_trainer.rs:23200-23216 constructor block writing
     HOLD_COST_BASE to slot 380 (RETAINED per DD7c, comment requires
     update)
A5 — gpu_dqn_trainer.rs:617, 2245-2256 doc-block prose
A6 — sp13_isv_slots.rs:75-77 HOLD_COST_CONTROLLER_GAIN/FLOOR/CEIL
     constants (HOLD_COST_BASE retained for A4)
A7 — gpu_experience_collector.rs:5579-5585 stale comment doc-ref
A8 — sp5_isv_slots.rs:325-327 comment doc-ref
A9 — state_reset_registry.rs:1138-1271 7 already-RETIRED entries
     promote to FULL DELETION
A10 — state_reset_registry.rs:2256-2308 lock_sp18_v2_pp4_retired_chain
      contract test asserts retired entries STILL EXIST; must be
      deleted/rewritten when entries are removed

None of these are architectural surprises — they're straight extensions
of the atomic-deletion scope. But per the task input's halt-on-drift
directive ("If your audit surfaces ANY additional consumer, halt and
report — do NOT proceed with deletion ad-hoc"), Phase 1 Tasks 1.3-1.5
HALT pending human sign-off on the expanded scope.

Path forward (next phase)

Either expand the atomic-deletion commit scope to cover all 18 sites
(8 plan + 10 audit-surfaced) — recommended per `feedback_no_partial_
refactor`; the audit doc serves as the spec-amendment record — or
human-review the audit doc and explicitly approve/reject each A* entry.

The audit doc + script + hook are the pre-condition for either path
and ship together as Tasks 1.1 + 1.2 of Phase 1. Tasks 1.3-1.6 await
human go-ahead.

Branch is at INTERIM STATE: NOT runnable for L40S smoke between this
commit and the post-Phase-1.6 close-out. The interim is purely-additive
(audit script + hook + doc); the actual deletion that creates the
"3 reward sites missing Hold cost" interim from the plan's Task 1.5
has NOT yet been performed.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-09 02:23:57 +02:00
jgrusewski
0ad5b6fa42 chore(sp13): script bug fix + Layer B implementation notes
While P0b smoke (train-sw4ws on bdc5cb8bb) runs, two prep items:

(A) scripts/argo-train.sh — add `ci-training` to the L40S sm_89 case
    arm. Bare `ci-training` is an L40S pool alias in some clusters;
    previously defaulted to sm_90 (Hopper), causing train-mnpf7 to
    deploy with wrong-arch cubins (terminated + resubmitted manually).
    Now both `*l40s*` and bare `ci-training` resolve correctly.

(C) docs/superpowers/plans/...sp13...md — Layer B section expanded
    with concrete codebase locations discovered during P0a:
    - aux_heads_kernel.cu, aux_heads_loss_ema_kernel.cu locations
    - aux_nb_label_buf populated as column 0 of next_states (log_return)
    - F1/F2 regression history note (don't alias the label buffer)
    - aux_pred_to_isv_tanh_kernel.cu is a P0a placeholder per its own
      header — Layer B should rewrite to read softmax logit-diff
    - dir_acc kernel + oracle tests need softmax-read updates
    - Layer B + P0b combined rationale post-P0a empirics

Saves the next implementer ~30 min of re-investigation.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-05 08:27:49 +02:00
jgrusewski
5275932f4c guard+cleanup(cuda): DtoD-via-pinned pre-commit guard + delete orphan HER
Two related changes installing the structural guard against the SP6 Pearl 5
IQN τ failure mode (root cause fixed at facbf76eb for that one site) and
removing the only remaining orphan callers of the broken pattern.

The bug class. The mapped_pinned::{upload,clone_to_device}_{f32,i32}_via_pinned
helpers are named to suggest "no HtoD per feedback_no_htod_htoh_only_mapped_pinned"
but their bodies do MappedXBuffer::new() + memcpy_dtod_async() +
stream.synchronize(). The DtoD copy and synchronize are both forbidden
inside CUDA Graph capture (CUDA_ERROR_STREAM_CAPTURE_INVALIDATED) and add a
host stall otherwise. The canonical pattern is MappedXBuffer stored directly
+ write_from_slice + kernel reads via .dev_ptr, used by SP4 portfolio_state
and SP6 IQN τ at facbf76eb.

Guard. New check_no_dtod_via_pinned in pre-commit-hook.sh rejects any
staged .rs file calling upload_(f32|i32)_via_pinned or
clone_to_device_(f32|i32)_via_pinned, except mapped_pinned.rs itself. Per
feedback_no_hiding: no suppression marker. Also fixes a pre-existing
silent-skip bug: the gpu-hotpath-guard.sh invocation used
$(cd "$(dirname "$0")" && pwd) which resolved to .git/hooks/ (the symlink's
directory) instead of scripts/, so the guard never ran. Replaced with
readlink -f "$0" + an explicit "guard missing" error branch — silent skip
is worse than no guard.

Orphan deletion. gpu_her.rs carried legacy relabel_batch, generate_random_donors
(CPU), HerBatch, slice_clone_f32, slice_clone_i32 — zero production callers
(verified via grep). Production uses relabel_batch_with_strategy +
generate_random_donors_gpu. The orphan held the only upload_i32_via_pinned
callers in the codebase; per feedback_no_hiding the right fix is delete.

Scope. Eliminates 2 of 47 production *_via_pinned call sites. Remaining 45
across 14 files are cold-path init — graph-capture-fragile and host-stalling
but not breaking operationally. Guard enforces no new calls; existing 45
migrate in subsequent atomic per-buffer commits. After all 45 are converted,
the four helpers themselves get deleted from mapped_pinned.rs.

Validation. Smoke smoke-test-82fjk at facbf76eb succeeded — magnitude
differentiation restored (q_full=0.462 > q_half=0.409 > q_quarter=0.350 vs
baseline frozen Pascal-triangle 0.225/0.280/0.495), eval distribution
unfrozen (eq=0.596, eh=0.404, ef=0.000 vs baseline single-action collapse).

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-02 10:12:23 +02:00
jgrusewski
7e2eb708a7 infra(argo): smoke-test --clean-cache parameter for build-cache-isolated bisect
The L40S smoke template uses CARGO_TARGET_DIR=/cargo-target on a
persistent PVC, so every smoke probe builds incrementally on top of
artefacts left by prior probes. File deletions (e.g., regime_conditional.rs
in ff00af68a) can leave dangling rmeta/object references that perturb
downstream codegen between bisect runs — making the bisect result
contingent on which order probes were submitted in, not on the source.

Adds an optional `clean-cache` parameter (default `false`) which runs
`cargo clean -p ml -p ml-dqn --release` before the compile step. Other
crate artefacts (ml-core, ml-supervised, etc.) stay cached so the wipe
is bounded — fresh ml/ml-dqn compile in ~3-5 min vs ~30+ min full clean.

Use case: re-running a52d99613 + ff00af68a with `--clean-cache` to
verify the bisect under controlled build conditions. If the
broken/clean status flips with clean cache, the regression is
build-state-dependent rather than source-line; if it reproduces, the
source regression is real and bisect is definitive.

scripts/argo-smoke.sh exposes `--clean-cache` flag passing through
to the workflow parameter.
2026-04-29 11:04:18 +02:00
jgrusewski
27f536ba6e infra(argo): plain smoke-test template + scripts/argo-smoke.sh
Adds a no-wrapper L40S smoke runner alongside the nsys/sanitizer
templates. Same compile + checkout + data-mount layout, no profiler
binary, no sanitizer instrumentation, no MinIO artefact upload — just
a plain test execution against the full training-data PVC.

Use case: validate a smoke test passes on the real 27-month dataset
when local data is too short (laptop only has 1 quarter of MBP-10/
trades, fxcache truncates below the 10-month minimum).

- infra/k8s/argo/smoke-test-template.yaml: WorkflowTemplate
  smoke-test, entrypoint smoke-run, default test
  multi_fold_convergence::test_multi_fold_convergence.
- infra/k8s/argo/kustomization.yaml: register the new template.
- infra/k8s/argo/argo-workflow-netpol.yaml: extend the
  sanitizer/nsys NetworkPolicy podSelector to include smoke-test
  (identical egress requirements: git fetch, ci-builder pull,
  training-data PVC).
- scripts/argo-smoke.sh: thin wrapper mirroring argo-nsys.sh /
  argo-sanitizer.sh (--multi-fold default, --test, --ref, --watch).

Verified: kustomize dry-run clean, kubectl apply -k creates the
template + reconfigures the netpol live in foxhunt namespace.
2026-04-29 07:52:11 +02:00
jgrusewski
0d630c799e fix(argo): nsys upload to foxhunt-training-results bucket (real bucket name)
The original target 'foxhunt-training-artifacts' (cloned from
train-multi-seed-template) does not exist on the cluster MinIO.
Available production buckets: foxhunt-models, foxhunt-training-data,
foxhunt-training-results, foxhunt-binaries, foxhunt-backups,
foxhunt-gitlab-{artifacts,packages,registry}.

foxhunt-training-results is the right home for profiling artefacts
(model evaluation outputs already land there). Upload path is now
foxhunt-training-results/profiles/smoke/<short-sha>/profile-<pod>.nsys-rep.

Note: train-multi-seed-template has the same bucket-name typo —
production --profile uploads have been silently failing. Out of scope
for this commit, separate fix needed there.
2026-04-28 22:56:31 +02:00
jgrusewski
4d1d8ffa25 infra(argo): add sanitizer-test + nsys-test workflow templates for L40S smoke validation
Two new one-shot WorkflowTemplates for validating smoke tests under
GPU-instrumentation tools that don't fit in the laptop's 4 GB VRAM:

- `sanitizer-test`: wraps cargo test smoke under `compute-sanitizer
  --tool=memcheck|racecheck|synccheck|initcheck` with --target-processes all
  so multi_fold_convergence's spawned `train_baseline_rl` subprocess is also
  instrumented. Pre-builds train_baseline_rl example to avoid sanitizer
  instrumenting cargo/rustc on the inner spawn. Triages internal-vs-real
  errors and exits non-zero only on real bugs.

- `nsys-test`: wraps cargo test smoke under `nsys profile`. Captures CUDA +
  NVTX + osrt traces with GPU metrics (ga10x set). Uploads .nsys-rep to
  MinIO at foxhunt-training-artifacts/profiles/smoke/<short-sha>/, mirroring
  the existing Plan 5 Task 3 production-training profile pattern in
  train-multi-seed-template.

Wrapper scripts:
- scripts/argo-sanitizer.sh — `argo submit` wrapper, supports --multi-fold
  shortcut for fold-boundary code paths (IQN sync, aux Adam reset,
  iqn_readiness reset, MSE clamp) that single-fold tests cannot exercise.
- scripts/argo-nsys.sh — same shape as argo-sanitizer.sh, default test is
  performance::test_real_data_single_epoch for broad coverage.

Why L40S: laptop RTX 3050 Ti's 4 GB cannot fit compute-sanitizer's
instrumentation metadata (~2-3x app VRAM) — sanitizer falls back to "didn't
track the launch" with 60k+ internal-allocation errors. L40S 48 GB has
ample headroom for both memcheck and nsys overhead.

Both templates compile cargo test --release --lib --no-run plus cargo build
--release --example train_baseline_rl on the cargo-target PVC. Compile time
dominated by sccache hit rate (production training image: 100% C/C++ cache,
~75% Rust cache after warmup).

Templates registered in kustomization.yaml — apply with `kubectl apply -k
infra/k8s/argo` before first submit.
2026-04-28 21:57:32 +02:00
jgrusewski
fcf76701f4 plan5(task5-B): pivot multi-seed Argo from N×K (seed,fold) to N seed-only fanout
The first L40S deploy attempt (workflow `train-multi-seed-z2llf`, terminated)
failed at startup with `error: unexpected argument '--fold' found` on every
job: `train_baseline_rl` is a multi-fold walk-forward executor that accepts
`--max-folds K`, NOT `--fold N`. The original P5T1 harness assumed the
opposite and fanned out N seeds × K folds = N*K jobs, each invoking the
binary with `--seed N --fold K`.

User chose Path B: pivot to one job per seed (each runs all K folds via the
existing `--max-folds` mechanism). Per-job runtime is K× longer, but fanout
drops from N*K=30 → N=5 (matches L40S pool capacity better) and the binary
contract becomes the one the binary actually has.

4 surface changes:

1. crates/ml/examples/train_baseline_rl.rs — add `--seed N` CLI arg
   (default 42 — historic implicit value). Sets `FOXHUNT_SEED` env var at
   startup BEFORE any CUDA module spins up. Logs the seed value at the
   training start banner.

2. crates/ml/src/cuda_pipeline/mod.rs — add `global_seed()` (reads
   `FOXHUNT_SEED`, default 42) + `mix_seed(base)` (SplitMix64 avalanche
   so adjacent global seeds produce uncorrelated module seeds). Six call
   sites updated to mix the global seed into their previously-hardcoded
   constants:
   - trainer/action.rs: GpuActionSelector seed (0xDEAD_BEEF_CAFE) + the
     epsilon-greedy fallback StdRng (0xAC7_DEF0).
   - cuda_pipeline/gpu_iqn_head.rs: IQN Xavier-init RNG (0x1CA_1234).
   - cuda_pipeline/gpu_iql_trainer.rs: V(s) Xavier-init RNG (0x1C1_9ABC).
   - cuda_pipeline/gpu_her.rs: random-donor RNG (0x4E4_5678).
   - cuda_pipeline/gpu_ppo_collector.rs: rng_seeds Vec for PPO
     experience-collector init + reset (0xAA0_5EED).
   - trainer/training_loop.rs: per-epoch regime_dropout_seed.

3. infra/k8s/argo/train-multi-seed-template.yaml — drop `fold` parameter
   from `train-single` template; binary invoked as `--seed "$SEED"
   --max-folds {{workflow.parameters.folds}}` so the walk-forward sweep
   happens inside the single training process. Drop `FOLD` env var. Update
   the nsys-rep upload filename to drop the fold suffix. Update banners /
   doc comments to reflect "one-job-per-seed" semantics.

4. scripts/argo-train.sh — matrix generator drops the inner fold loop.
   Each emitted task carries only `seed=${s}` and depends on the same
   ensure-fxcache + gpu-warmup. The dry-run synthetic marker switches from
   `seed=${s} fold=${f}` to `seed=${s} max_folds=${FOLDS}` so test harnesses
   count the new shape correctly.

5. scripts/tests/test_multi_seed_harness.sh — assertions updated:
   - `--multi-seed 3 --folds 2` produces 3 tasks (was 6).
   - Rendered binary command must include `--max-folds
     {{workflow.parameters.folds}}` placeholder.
   - Rendered template must declare `folds` workflow parameter (so
     `argo submit -p folds=K` overrides the default).
   - Rendered binary command must NOT contain any per-fold flag — this
     catches the failure mode that broke the first L40S deploy.
   - Backward-compat: `--multi-seed 1 --folds 1` preserves the existing
     single-template path (no DAG matrix tasks emitted).

6. docs/dqn-wire-up-audit.md — adds 1 Wired row documenting the pivot,
   the new `--seed`/`mix_seed` plumbing, all 6 RNG call sites, and the
   end-to-end seed-variation verification result.

Validation:

  cargo check --workspace clean at 11 warnings (workspace baseline preserved).

  cargo build --release --example train_baseline_rl succeeds; --help shows
  the new --seed flag with documented default 42.

  Seed-variation end-to-end test on RTX 3050 Ti (1 fold × 2 epochs each):
    --seed 42  → F0 best Sharpe = -9.7831, best_val_metric = 1.957244,
                 epoch-2 train Sharpe = -16.12, val_Sharpe = +1.11.
    --seed 999 → F0 best Sharpe = +92.9341, best_val_metric = 2.161012,
                 epoch-2 train Sharpe = +92.93, val_Sharpe = -0.25.
  Different best Sharpe / best_val_metric / epoch-2 train + val Sharpe
  across seeds proves the seed actually propagates through the RNG init
  paths and is not just accepted-and-ignored. The seed=42 numbers match
  the prompt's "deterministic baseline" expectation (F0 = -9.7831 was
  bit-identical pre-pivot because no global-seed plumbing existed).

  ./scripts/argo-train.sh dqn --multi-seed 5 --folds 6 --dry-run produces
  exactly 5 WorkflowTask markers (train-s0..train-s4), each with
  `--max-folds {{workflow.parameters.folds}}` in the binary invocation.

  All 3 harness tests PASS:
    - test_multi_seed_harness.sh: 5 PASS lines, exit 0.
    - test_nsys_harness.sh: 4 PASS lines + ALL PASS, exit 0.
    - test_tier_checks.sh: PASS overall (good-fixture passes, bad-fixture
      surfaces expected check rejections), exit 0.

Backward compat: existing single-job `argo-train.sh` callers (no
`--multi-seed`, no `--folds`) route to the original `train-template.yaml`
unchanged. `--seed 42` is a no-op offset for the SplitMix64 mix at the call
sites — the trajectory shifts only when the user passes `--seed` explicitly,
matching the prompt's "default 42 (historic implicit value)" requirement.

L40S pool: argo-train.sh defaults `--gpu-pool ci-training-h100`; user passes
`--gpu-pool ci-training-l40s` at deploy time. No script default change
(per constraint 5).

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-04-26 14:11:32 +02:00
jgrusewski
fbee2a00f5 plan5(task5-A): wire tier 2/3 val_* metrics into HEALTH_DIAG
Plan 5 Task 4 left every tier-2/tier-3 check failing with "metric missing
from aggregate" because the existing 'Validation backtest:' free-form log
line was not parseable by the aggregate-multi-seed-metrics.py block-keyed
parser. Phase A closes that gap end-to-end (CPU-only, no kernel touch):

* metrics.rs::compute_validation_loss — emit a new
    HEALTH_DIAG[<epoch>]: val [sharpe=… sortino=… win_rate=…
                               max_drawdown=… trade_count=… calmar=…
                               omega_ratio=… total_pnl=… var_95=… cvar_95=…
                               trades_per_bar=… active_frac=… dir_entropy=…
                               sharpe_annualised=… profit_factor=…
                               window_bars=…]
  block immediately after the existing 'Validation backtest:' line. All
  16 keys derive from the existing GpuBacktestEvaluator WindowMetrics
  reduction (no new GPU work):
    - sharpe / sortino / win_rate / max_drawdown / total_trades /
      calmar / omega_ratio / total_pnl / var_95 / cvar_95 / buy_count /
      sell_count / hold_count come straight from m.*
    - window_bars = buy + sell + hold (kernel tallies one direction
      per bar)
    - trades_per_bar = total_trades / window_bars
    - active_frac = (buy + sell) / window_bars (kernel folds Hold AND
      Flat into hold_count, so 'active' = bars where the policy chose
      Short or Long — meets the Tier-2 'not always Hold' intent)
    - dir_entropy = -Σ p ln p over the 3-bucket {short, hold-or-flat,
      long} distribution. Documented limitation: max log(3) ≈ 1.099
      vs spec's 4-bucket 0.8·log(4) ≈ 1.109 ceiling — tier2 dir_entropy
      threshold is unreachable from this 3-bucket distribution; resolution
      tracked in audit row.
    - sharpe_annualised = m.sharpe alias (kernel already multiplies by
      sqrt(bars_per_day · 252) at backtest_metrics_kernel:266)
    - profit_factor = m.omega_ratio alias (kernel's omega computes
      gain_sum/loss_sum at threshold 0, equivalent to per-step PF;
      trade-level PF deferred — needs boundary-aware kernel work)

* mod.rs — adds last_val_metrics: Option<[f32; 14]> on DQNTrainer to
  snapshot the WindowMetrics-derived values for downstream consumers
  (smoke tests, future telemetry).

* constructor.rs — initialises the new field to None.

* aggregate-multi-seed-metrics.py — switches the block→key joiner from
  '__' to '_' so 'val [sharpe=…]' surfaces as the bare 'val_sharpe'
  aggregate key the tier check scripts and synthetic test fixtures
  already expect. The pre-existing '__' joiner was an oversight in
  Plan 5 Task 1B that was never validated against actual aggregator
  output (the aggregator emitted 90 'block__key' metrics that nothing
  consumed; the synthetic good_tier1.json / bad_tier1.json fixtures
  were always shaped as 'val_sharpe', confirming the single-underscore
  convention was intended). Renaming the 90 existing keys is safe — no
  consumers had locked in on the '__' form.

* docs/dqn-wire-up-audit.md — updates Plan 5 Task 4 row to reference
  the now-landed wiring and adds a new row documenting the val [...]
  HEALTH_DIAG block pipeline + aggregator joiner change + the deferred
  4-bucket dir_dist + trade-level PF caveats.

Validation:
  cargo check --workspace clean at 11 warnings.

  multi_fold_convergence smoke (629s, 3 folds × 5 epochs on RTX 3050 Ti)
  PASSES with 3/3 fold checkpoints. Per-fold best Sharpe: -9.78 / 42.46 /
  88.18 (within smoke noise band — no perturbation from the additive
  CPU-only HEALTH_DIAG line).

  scripts/aggregate-multi-seed-metrics.py against /tmp/p5t5a-smoke.log
  produces 3 streams (one per fold), 16 val_* keys all present:
  val_sharpe, val_sharpe_annualised, val_sortino, val_win_rate,
  val_max_drawdown, val_trade_count, val_calmar, val_omega_ratio,
  val_total_pnl, val_var_95, val_cvar_95, val_trades_per_bar,
  val_active_frac, val_dir_entropy, val_profit_factor, val_window_bars.

  check_tier2.py / check_tier3.py rejection messages are now substantive
  (threshold-based) rather than "missing key":
    Tier 2: trades_per_bar PASS @ 0.0127; active_frac FAIL @ 0.058 (model
            mostly Hold on 5-epoch smoke); dir_entropy FAIL @ 0.18 (within
            documented 3-bucket vs 4-bucket caveat).
    Tier 3: sharpe_annualised FAIL @ -0.25 (5-epoch smoke not converged);
            win_rate skipped (192 trades ≤ 500 noise gate); profit_factor
            FAIL @ 0.18 (untrained policy).
  Real validation pass requires the L40S 60-epoch run (Phase C).

Deferred (out of T5 Phase A scope):
  - val_dir_dist_{short,hold,long,flat} per-direction breakdown — kernel
    intentionally collapses Hold+Flat for trade-cycle counting; Tier-2's
    log(4) threshold needs either a kernel-level split or a 3-bucket
    threshold tweak in check_tier2.py.
  - Trade-level profit_factor (sum-winner-PnL / sum-loser-PnL) vs the
    per-step omega-equivalent emitted here.
  - avg_q_value bare-key aggregation — the metric is logged via separate
    Prometheus + tracing paths but not inside any HEALTH_DIAG block; out
    of T5 Phase A scope and pre-existing.
2026-04-26 13:04:39 +02:00
jgrusewski
0d373da490 plan5(task4): tiered-exit validation script suite (tier1/2/3 checks)
Creates scripts/validation/ with per-tier exit checks consuming the
aggregate JSON from scripts/aggregate-multi-seed-metrics.py (P5T1B):

  check_tier1.py — convergence (std/mean ≤ 0.15 on val_sharpe /
    avg_q_value / train_loss; avg_q_value max ≤ 500 fold-1 explosion
    guard; placeholders for Q-saturation + hot-path-DtoH per spec).
  check_tier2.py — behavioural (val_trades_per_bar ≥ 0.005,
    val_active_frac > 0.2, dir argmax entropy > 0.8·log4 with
    val_dir_entropy primary + val_dir_dist_* fallback).
  check_tier3.py — profitability (val_sharpe_annualised > 1.0 with
    val_sharpe per-bar fallback, val_win_rate ≥ 0.52 gated on
    >500 trades, val_profit_factor mean ≥ 1.1 AND cross-seed std < 0.3).
  check_all_tiers.py — subprocess wrapper, exits 0 only if all pass.

Stdlib-only (statistics / argparse / json / subprocess) — no new deps.
Defensive missing-metric handling: each check FAILs with an explanatory
message when its required aggregate key is absent rather than silently
passing, so missing HEALTH_DIAG metrics are surfaced loudly.

Test harness scripts/validation/tests/test_tier_checks.sh exercises
good + bad fixtures across all four scripts and against the wrapper.

Audit row added to docs/dqn-wire-up-audit.md documenting the suite +
the deferred metrics list (val_trades_per_bar, val_active_frac,
val_dir_entropy/_dist_*, val_sharpe_annualised, val_win_rate,
val_profit_factor, val_trade_count) that HEALTH_DIAG must emit before
tiers 2/3 can ever PASS on real data — tracked for Plan 5 Task 5
pre-flight wire-up.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-04-26 12:33:28 +02:00
jgrusewski
2606506cd8 plan5(task3): A.4.1 nsys profile harness with regression-comparison script
- argo-train.sh: --profile flag forces multi-seed render path so the
  nsys wrapper + foxhunt-training-artifacts upload step are visible in
  --dry-run YAML without cluster contact (test surface).
- train-multi-seed-template.yaml: new `profile` parameter (default
  "false") gates the per-(seed, fold) `nsys profile
  --capture-range=cudaProfilerApi` wrapper and the `mc cp` upload to
  foxhunt-training-artifacts/profiles/<sha>/. mc binary fetched
  on-demand (ci-builder image lacks it). MinIO creds optional —
  upload warn-skips if absent.
- Dockerfile.foxhunt-training-runtime: install nsight-systems-cli
  unpinned (pinning the stale 2024.4.1.61-1 from earlier plans
  breaks builds when apt index advances).
- minio.yaml: add foxhunt-training-artifacts bucket to minio-init.
- compare-nsys-profiles.py: V0 regression detector — compares
  cuda_gpu_kern_sum total_ns / epoch_count between two profiles;
  exits 1 on >20% slowdown. NVTX per-epoch ranges deferred to T5.
- tests/test_nsys_harness.sh: dry-run grep test — verifies both
  required strings appear when --profile is set, and that the
  default (no --profile) path keeps profile=false in the rendered
  template.
- dqn-wire-up-audit.md: Plan 5 Task 3 row added documenting the
  harness + the baseline-capture deferral to T5.

Backward compat: test_multi_seed_harness.sh from P5T1 still PASS.
2026-04-26 12:25:35 +02:00
jgrusewski
6cdfbff8d6 plan5(task2): A.4 regression-detection hard-stop on 2N consecutive error-band
Adds the convergence guardrail: every per-epoch HEALTH_DIAG metric is
checked against the bands in config/metric-bands.toml; N consecutive
warn-band epochs emit a tracing::warn; 2N consecutive error-band epochs
return Err(CommonError::RegressionDetected{...}) cleanly from the
training loop, which propagates to the train_baseline_rl subprocess
exit code (no libc::raise — clean Rust error path).

Wire-points:
- New module: crates/ml/src/trainers/dqn/trainer/monitoring.rs
  - MetricBands {warn_low, warn_high, error_low, error_high}
  - BandSettings {consecutive_epochs_for_warn, consecutive_epochs_for_error}
  - MetricBandsRegistry: load_from_toml + update_and_check
  - TerminationReason {RegressionWarn, RegressionError}
  - NaN treated as out-of-band (consecutive++; never resets streak)
  - Unknown metrics return None (silent OK per Invariant 7 audit)
- crates/common/src/error.rs: new CommonError::RegressionDetected variant
  carrying {metric, value, band, consecutive}
- crates/ml/src/trainers/dqn/trainer/constructor.rs: load
  config/metric-bands.toml at trainer init; warn-only on missing file
  (backward compat for environments without the config)
- crates/ml/src/trainers/dqn/trainer/training_loop.rs: harvest per-epoch
  metrics (parallel emit alongside HEALTH_DIAG), feed each through
  registry.update_and_check; on Some(TerminationReason::RegressionError)
  emit final HEALTH_DIAG[N]: TERMINATED_BY_REGRESSION line and return Err
- services/trading_service/src/error.rs: minimal handler for the new
  CommonError variant (existing pattern)

Validation:
- 8 unit tests in monitoring::tests pass (band logic, NaN, warn-only
  behaviour, error-streak threshold, unknown-metric, invalid TOML)
- regression_detection GPU smoke (3.19s): trainer with intentionally
  narrow train_loss error band [0, 1e-9] self-terminates at epoch 5
  after 6 consecutive error-band epochs; final HEALTH_DIAG line emits
  TERMINATED_BY_REGRESSION with metric/value/consecutive/band fields
- multi_fold_convergence smoke (650s, --release): all 3 folds train
  to completion, all 3 checkpoints saved, no false-positive
  termination on the populated metric bands. Per-fold best train
  Sharpe: F0=-9.7831 (bit-baseline), F1=25.8272, F2=39.2687. F1/F2
  on the lower end of observed noise distribution
  ({74.56, 61.10, 71.53, 25.83} for F1; {88.20, 61.57, 65.96, 39.27}
  for F2) but training healthy throughout: aux clauses fire every
  epoch, sharpe_ema recovers from F0 collapse (-9.78 → +14.8 by start
  of F2), no regression detection trips.

config/metric-bands.toml populated for the metrics emitted by
HEALTH_DIAG today (avg_q_value, train_loss, val_sharpe, train_sharpe,
aux_next_bar_mse, aux_regime_ce, isv_* slot EMAs, sharpe_ema, etc.).
Bands derived from current cleanroom smoke + permissive defaults
where only one sample exists; populate-metric-bands-from-runs.py will
tighten them after Plan 5 Task 5's multi-seed pass produces real
distributions.

Constraints honoured: GPU-only in hot path (band check is CPU-side
post-HEALTH_DIAG, off the captured graph); no atomicAdd; no stubs;
no // ok: band-aids; no tuned constants beyond the toml-loaded bands;
no .unwrap() introduced; cargo check clean at 11 warnings (workspace
baseline preserved, plus ml-dqn pre-existing 1 warning).

Audit doc: new row added documenting monitoring.rs module, the
CommonError variant, the training_loop wire-point, and the design
choice that band-checks run AFTER HEALTH_DIAG emit (not before) so
the diag log already reflects the metric values that triggered any
termination.

Plan 5 T1 (multi-seed harness) landed at c6634254e+47c8b783c; T2
(this) gives the regression hard-stop that the multi-seed final
pass (T5) consumes to bail out early on bad seeds.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-04-26 11:49:14 +02:00
jgrusewski
47c8b783c4 plan5(task1B): metric aggregation across multi-seed runs
Companion to Plan 5 Task 1A (multi-seed Argo DAG). Adds the post-run
aggregation pipeline:

- scripts/gather-multi-seed-metrics.sh: thin wrapper that pulls Argo logs
  for every workflow tagged foxhunt-tag=<tag>, concatenates them into
  /tmp/all-logs-<tag>.txt, then dispatches to the Python aggregator.

- scripts/aggregate-multi-seed-metrics.py: stdlib-only HEALTH_DIAG parser.
  Recognises both bare and JSON-envelope-wrapped HEALTH_DIAG[<epoch>]
  lines, parses every <block>[<key=val> ...] segment, and emits per-
  (epoch, metric_name) mean / std / median / min / max across streams
  (where each stream is one (seed, fold) training run, attributed by
  pod-name prefix when present, else by epoch-rewind detection — naive
  epoch=0 trigger over-segments the multi-line per-epoch HEALTH_DIAG
  output, fixed by requiring epoch < last_epoch to start a new stream).
  Output JSON schema matches the plan example (top-level: tag,
  multi_seed, folds, warmup_end_epoch, streams_seen, aggregates;
  per-entry: epoch, mean, std, median, min, max, n_samples).

- scripts/aggregate-norm-stats.py: stdlib-only merger for
  norm_stats_foldN_seedM.json files. Per-fold output collapses N seeds
  into mean/median/std/std_dispersion arrays consumed by the
  `evaluate` step's inference normaliser.

- scripts/requirements.txt: declares numpy/scipy/matplotlib for downstream
  Plan 5 T4-T5 tier-validation/plotting scripts. The aggregators
  themselves are stdlib-only (statistics module).

Smoke-validated on /tmp/p4t6-cleanroom-smoke.log: detects 3 streams
(matching the 3 fold runs in that log), 90 unique metrics, n_samples=3
per (epoch, metric), schema matches plan.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-04-26 10:58:42 +02:00
jgrusewski
c6634254e4 plan5(task1A): multi-seed × multi-fold Argo DAG template
Adds the orchestration surface for Plan 5 Task 1 — Multi-Seed × Multi-Fold
Validation Harness:

- scripts/argo-train.sh: new --multi-seed N, --folds K, --tag T, --dry-run
  flags. Default --multi-seed 1 --folds 1 routes to the existing
  train-template.yaml (backward compat — existing callers unchanged). When
  N>1 or K>1 the script renders train-multi-seed-template.yaml with an
  inline-generated (seed, fold) matrix and either prints the YAML
  (--dry-run) or applies + submits it.

- infra/k8s/argo/train-multi-seed-template.yaml: new WorkflowTemplate with
  entrypoint multi-seed-matrix → ensure-binary, gpu-warmup, ensure-fxcache,
  then N*K parallel train-single instances. Each train-single receives
  seed/fold via inputs.parameters and forwards them to the training binary
  via --seed/--fold CLI args + SEED/FOLD env vars. The dag.tasks placeholder
  `# __MATRIX_TASKS__` is substituted programmatically by argo-train.sh
  (awk) — no hand-written 30-task matrix.

- scripts/tests/test_multi_seed_harness.sh: dry-run regression test.
  Asserts --multi-seed 3 --folds 2 emits 6 WorkflowTask markers AND
  --multi-seed 1 --folds 1 emits zero (single-template path preserved).

Validation:
- argo lint --offline passes on both the source template and the rendered
  3x2 / 5x6 outputs.
- test_multi_seed_harness.sh passes locally.
- Single-job dry-run still produces the unchanged train-template YAML.

Note: plan Step 0.1 pre-plan check expects ISV_TOTAL_DIM=72 and seven
ATTN_*_FOCUS_EMA_INDEX slots — both stale (Plan 4 landed
ISV_TOTAL_DIM=117 and the VSN_MAG_EMA / VSN_DIR_EMA / MAMBA2_RETENTION_EMA
slots instead). Plan 4 validation doc never landed (T8 deferred → Plan 5
T5). T1 is pure infrastructure that builds the harness consumed by T5,
so the stale pre-plan expectations do not block this commit.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-04-26 10:55:12 +02:00
jgrusewski
fbb8694a0b feat(dqn-v2): A.2 ISV layout fingerprint at ISV[37..39) (tail placement)
Implements spec §4.A.2 structural layout fingerprint with tail placement
rather than head placement (spec alternative: §4.A.2 Step 5.3 alt).

Head placement (ISV[0..2)) was rejected because isv_signals[0] and [1]
are actively written by the isv_signal_update kernel (Q-drift EMA and
gradient-norm EMA). Shifting those would require updating every literal
reference in experience_kernels.cu — a larger change than warranted for
pure contract enforcement. Tail placement leaves all existing indices
intact, touches zero kernel .cu files, and fulfils the same design contract.

Key changes:
- ISV_LAYOUT_FINGERPRINT_LO_INDEX = 37, HI_INDEX = 38 (u64 across 2×f32).
- LAYOUT_FINGERPRINT_CURRENT: u64 = FNV-1a of slot-list seed bytes.
  Value: 0x85d4d76b578a7c17. Any slot change updates seed bytes,
  which updates the hash automatically.
- Constructor writes fingerprint after zero-init; calls
  check_layout_fingerprint() to self-verify before returning.
- check_layout_fingerprint(): reads pinned slots [37..39), recomposes u64,
  fails-fast on mismatch with "retrain required" message.
- Error message does NOT mention migration as an option.
- Pre-commit hook rejects `fn migrate_isv|upgrade_isv` names — makes the
  no-migration rule structurally enforced (check_no_isv_migrations).
- ISV_TOTAL_DIM: 37 → 39.
- Zero existing index shifts (no kernel literal sites affected).
- StateResetRegistry entry renamed ISV_SCHEMA_VERSION → ISV_LAYOUT_FINGERPRINT.
- ResetCategory::SchemaContract docstring updated to remove "migration" framing.
- docs/isv-slots.md: updated table + design note for tail placement.

Tests: state_reset_registry 3 unit tests pass with renamed entry.
       cargo check -p ml clean (pre-existing warnings only).

Plan 1 Task 5. Spec §4.A.2 (tail-placement alternative).

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-04-24 12:40:59 +02:00
jgrusewski
06989cfdf9 infra(dqn-v2): audit doc scaffolding + pre-commit enforcement
Plan 1 Task 1. Creates the five audit docs plus config/metric-bands.toml
that track Invariants 2, 7, 8 per the DQN v2 spec, and extends the
pre-commit hook with two checks:

  - component-adding commits must touch an audit doc (Invariant 7)
  - added code may not contain TODO/FIXME/XXX/HACK/TBD/unimplemented!/
    todo! markers (Invariant 9)

Tests: manually verified by staging a TODO-marked file; commit
rejected with the correct error message.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-04-24 10:25:27 +02:00
jgrusewski
904185004c feat: L40S GPU profile + auto-derive cuda-compute-cap from GPU pool
argo-train.sh now auto-selects cuda-compute-cap based on --gpu-pool:
  - ci-training-h100* → sm_90 (Hopper)
  - ci-training-l40s  → sm_89 (Ada Lovelace)

Added config/gpu/l40s.toml:
  - batch_size=4096 (between H100's 8192 and A100's 2048)
  - buffer_size=300K (scaled for 48GB VRAM)
  - gpu_timesteps_per_episode=2000 (bandwidth-limited)
  - gpu_n_episodes=2048 (scaled from H100's 4096)

GPU profile loader maps "L40S" → "l40s" (was "a100" fallback).

Also fixed pre-existing test drift: num_atoms=52 in h100.toml/a100.toml
was 51 in test expectations (padding alignment for C51 kernels).

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-04-20 16:59:06 +02:00
jgrusewski
2c8967ad96 feat: compute-sanitizer support in Argo training workflow
Usage: ./scripts/argo-train.sh dqn --baseline --epochs 2 --sanitizer memcheck
       ./scripts/argo-train.sh dqn --baseline --epochs 1 --sanitizer synccheck

Tools: memcheck (OOB, uninitialized), racecheck (data races),
synccheck (__syncthreads divergence/deadlocks).
10-100x slower — use with 1-2 epochs for debugging.
Detects exact kernel + line causing GPU hang.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-04-17 12:24:23 +02:00
jgrusewski
55821af90d fix: argo-precompute.sh uses train workflow + regenerated v2 fxcache
Script rewritten to use argo submit --from=wftmpl/train with
train-epochs=0 — runs ensure-binary + ensure-fxcache only.
Local test fxcache regenerated with FXCACHE_VERSION=2, OFI_DIM=20.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-04-17 01:29:42 +02:00
jgrusewski
242c18f4ab feat: argo-precompute.sh — regenerate fxcache on PVC
Usage: ./scripts/argo-precompute.sh [--branch main] [--watch]
Deletes old fxcache, builds precompute binary, runs with MBP-10 +
trades data. OFI_DIM=20 (20 microstructure features). ~5-10 min.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-04-17 01:14:46 +02:00
jgrusewski
445c2197f2 feat: unified Argo train workflow — replace 7 templates with 1
New: train-template.yaml with smart caching:
  - ensure-binary: checks /data/bin/{sha}/ on PVC, compiles only on cache miss
  - ensure-fxcache: runs precompute only if cache doesn't exist
  - gpu-warmup: parallel autoscale during compile
  - hyperopt → train-best → evaluate → upload-results

Deleted 7 redundant templates:
  - compile-and-train-template.yaml
  - train-dqn-template.yaml
  - train-baseline-rl-template.yaml
  - train-supervised-template.yaml
  - training-workflow-template.yaml
  - precompute-features-template.yaml
  - train-ppo-template.yaml

Deleted: scripts/argo-precompute.sh (absorbed into ensure-fxcache step)
Rewritten: scripts/argo-train.sh (single template, --sha for commit pinning)
Updated: kustomization.yaml

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-04-10 20:36:03 +02:00
jgrusewski
8919eccbb9 cleanup: remove --bf16 flag from precompute scripts and Argo template
Binary no longer accepts --bf16 (single f32 format). Removed from:
- scripts/argo-precompute.sh
- infra/k8s/argo/precompute-features-template.yaml

PVC fxcache cleaned: deleted 2.4GB old bf16 cache from feature-cache-pvc.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-04-10 20:05:58 +02:00
jgrusewski
729e8b5fae feat: argo-train.sh --baseline flag (skips hyperopt) + --cache-dir
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-04-03 23:00:14 +02:00
jgrusewski
cba407b79d feat: Argo precompute-features template + argo-precompute.sh CLI
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-03-31 23:59:34 +02:00
jgrusewski
cb8afe3caf feat: parameterized Argo WorkflowTemplate for Databento downloads
Replace hardcoded K8s Job with reusable Argo WorkflowTemplate
(databento-download) parameterized by schema, output-dir, parallel,
and node-pool. Add argo-download.sh CLI wrapper matching the
argo-train.sh pattern. Remove old streaming job file.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-03-31 22:40:37 +02:00