jgrusewski 00da163078 feat(ml-alpha): h6000-aligned ISV — uniform BCE + z-score lambda + K=64
Three correlated fixes addressing the architectural inconsistency
surfaced by the 3-fold ISV CV: we built a horizon-aware gradient
controller (ISV) but suppressed its target horizon (h6000) to 0.36%
of the loss via auto-horizon-weights, then used a ratio formula
that never approached its own clamp ceiling. ISV's lambda was
operating on rounding error.

(1) Uniform BCE weights as auto-default
    trainer/perception.rs: `auto_horizon_weights` now returns
    [1.0; 5] regardless of seq_len. Prior schedule `min(1, K/h)`
    gave h6000 weight 0.0053 at K=32 — combined with lambda ~1.04,
    h6000's effective loss contribution was ~0.37%, indistinguishable
    from zero. With uniform weights, each horizon contributes 20% and
    ISV's lambda actually has something to scale.

(2) Z-score lambda derivation
    cuda/horizon_lambda.cu: replace `ratio = ema_h / mean(ema)` with
    `z_h = (ema_h - mean) / std(ema); lambda = clamp(1.0 + 0.5*z, 1.0, 2.0)`.
    Per `pearl_zscore_normalization_for_magnitude_asymmetric_signals.md`
    z-score makes lambda spread scale-invariant of the absolute EMA
    level. The ratio formula gave lambdas ≤ 1.04 in our data because
    per-horizon BCE clusters tightly (range ~0.04) while mean is
    ~0.65. Z-score fills the [1.0, 2.0] envelope: 1σ → 1.5, 2σ →
    ceiling. Boost-only asymmetric clamp preserved.

    Test verification on the existing smoke (after 5 steps):
      ema    = [0.526, 0.522, 0.608, 0.641, 0.553]
      lambda = [1.00, 1.00, 1.40, 1.76, 1.00]
    Previously with ratio formula, max lambda on the same data
    would have been ~1.05. h1000 (1.5σ above mean BCE here) now
    gets a 76% trunk-gradient boost vs uniform.

(3) Default --seq-len 32 → 64
    examples/alpha_train.rs: K=32 gives the model 0.5% of the
    h6000 prediction window as in-window context. K=64 doubles
    that, giving Mamba2's SSM state more material to build
    long-horizon predictions. Within the kernel's MAMBA2_KERNEL_SEQ_MAX
    cap of 96. Per-epoch wall scales ~K (more K-loop launches in
    the captured graph, ~2× wall at K=64 vs K=32 for the K-loop
    portion of dispatch).

Cache-bust v5 in build.rs to force nvcc recompile against the new
horizon_lambda.cu formula on the cluster's /cargo-target PVC. Old
cubins compute a numerically different lambda; running them against
the new Rust loop would silently apply the wrong gradient scaler.

Validation: 7 perception_overfit tests + 26 lib + 23 integration
ml-alpha tests pass. Synthetic overfit still converges to 0.0006.
horizon_ema_and_lambda_track_after_training observes the new
lambda spread (1.0-1.76) and asserts the asymmetric clamp envelope.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-17 20:58:44 +02:00

Foxhunt

Production HFT trading system in Rust.

Architecture

The workspace contains 32 crates organized as follows:

Core Libraries (16)

Crate Purpose
trading_engine Order processing, FIX 4.4, IB TWS, SIMD, RDTSC timing
risk VaR, Kelly, circuit breakers, kill switches, compliance
risk-data Risk data types and shared structures
trading-data Trading data types
ml DQN Rainbow, PPO, TFT, Mamba2, ensemble inference
ml-data ML data types and feature definitions
data Market data ingestion and storage
backtesting Replay engine, strategy tester
adaptive-strategy Ensemble execution, microstructure analysis
common Shared types, resilience, error handling
storage S3 and local model storage
model_loader Model serialization and loading
market-data Market data feed handlers
database PostgreSQL access layer (SQLx)
config Configuration management
tli CLI commands and tooling

Services (8)

Service Purpose
backtesting_service gRPC backtesting service
broker_gateway_service FIX routing, broker connectivity
trading_service Core trading operations
ml_training_service Model training orchestration
data_acquisition_service Market data acquisition
trading_agent_service Autonomous trading agents
api_gateway gRPC API gateway with auth
web-gateway Axum REST + WebSocket gateway

Frontend

web-dashboard/ -- React 19 + TypeScript + Vite + TradingView charts.

Building

# Check compilation (no PostgreSQL required)
SQLX_OFFLINE=true cargo check --workspace

# Run tests for a specific crate
SQLX_OFFLINE=true cargo test -p <crate> --lib

# Clippy
SQLX_OFFLINE=true cargo clippy --workspace

ML Models

Four production model architectures on Candle v0.9.1 with CUDA:

  • DQN Rainbow -- Deep Q-Network with prioritized replay, dueling heads, noisy nets
  • PPO -- Proximal Policy Optimization with GAE and LSTM policies
  • TFT -- Temporal Fusion Transformer for multi-horizon forecasting
  • Mamba2 -- State space model for sequence prediction

Each model has a standalone trainer and a UnifiedTrainable adapter for the hyperopt pipeline.

Infrastructure

  • Git: Gitea at git.fxhnt.ai (Tailscale-only), Scaleway DEV1-S
  • Observability: OpenTelemetry OTLP (env OTEL_EXPORTER_OTLP_ENDPOINT)
  • Database: PostgreSQL with SQLx offline mode for CI

License

Proprietary. All rights reserved.

Description
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Python 1.3%
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