Commit Graph

5257 Commits

Author SHA1 Message Date
jgrusewski
c820b669de feat(ml-alpha): CfcTrunk loads v2 forward kernel handles (X10 foundation)
Adds the v2 forward kernel cubins (layer_norm, variable_selection,
attention_pool) and function handles (vsn_fwd_fn, ln_fwd_fn, attn_fwd_fn,
snap_batched_fn, step_batched_fn, heads_grn_fwd_fn, transpose_3d_fn)
onto CfcTrunk. The trunk now owns every kernel handle the v2 forward
chain needs.

PerceptionTrainer still loads its own copies of these cubins (duplicate
loading) and uses its own handles in evaluate_batched / step_batched —
the trainer-side consolidation lands in X10b. This commit is the
foundation: X11 will build capture_graph_a using these trunk-owned
handles, and X12 (CheckpointV2) doesn't depend on the consolidation.

Verification:
- perception_forward_golden: PASS (max_diff = 0.000000)
- ml-alpha lib tests: 34 pass

Per spec §2.2 (X10).
2026-05-19 08:31:17 +02:00
jgrusewski
5bd8897880 refactor(ml-alpha): move GRN heads from PerceptionTrainer to CfcTrunk (X9)
Adds the 4 missing GRN head fields (heads_w1, heads_b1, heads_w2, heads_b2)
that X1's skeleton under-modeled. Trunk now owns all 10 GRN head tensors:
input projection (HIDDEN→HEAD_MID), mid→mid layer, gate/main/skip outputs.

Trainer's 10 head fields removed. Trainer init still draws heads from
its ChaCha8Rng chain at the same call position, then memcpy_htod's them
into the trunk's now-allocated slots. Forward, backward, and AdamW
access sites redirect to self.trunk.heads_*. Gradient buffers + AdamW
state stay at trainer level.

Verification:
- perception_forward_golden: PASS (max_diff = 0.000000)
- ml-alpha lib tests: 34 pass

Per spec §2.2 (X9). After this commit, the trunk owns ALL v2 inference
weights — the source of truth for downstream checkpoint serialization.
2026-05-19 08:24:48 +02:00
jgrusewski
ef29e13c74 refactor(ml-alpha): move CfC weights from PerceptionTrainer to CfcTrunk (X8)
Adds CfcConfig.cfc_n_in field (default HIDDEN_DIM) so the trunk's CfC
layer is sized for v2 usage (CfC input = LN_b output = HIDDEN_DIM) rather
than V1 usage (CfC input = snap features = FEATURE_DIM). The previous
CfcConfig.n_in field stays as "raw snap feature dim" for any V1 callers
still in the tree (fxt-backtest, trunk_forward.rs, graph_a_replay.rs);
their forward paths will be cleaned up in X10/X11 when the v2 forward
graph lives natively on the trunk.

Trainer's w_in_d / w_rec_d / b_d / tau_d fields are removed. Trainer
init still draws CfC weights from its ChaCha8Rng chain at the same
call position, then memcpy_htod's them into the trunk's now-v2-shaped
slots. Forward, backward, and AdamW access sites redirect to
self.trunk.{w_in,w_rec,b,tau}_d.

Verification:
- perception_forward_golden: PASS (max_diff = 0.000000)
- ml-alpha lib tests: 34 pass

Per spec §2.2 (X8).
2026-05-19 08:20:33 +02:00
jgrusewski
2bd774ad14 refactor(ml-alpha): move attention-pool weight to CfcTrunk (X7)
attn_q_d moved from PerceptionTrainer to self.trunk.attn_q_d.

Verification: golden bit-exact; ml-alpha lib green.

Per spec §2.2 (X7).
2026-05-19 01:45:57 +02:00
jgrusewski
3357699431 refactor(ml-alpha): move LN_b weights from PerceptionTrainer to CfcTrunk (X6)
LN_b (formerly ln_gain_d / ln_bias_d on trainer) now lives at
self.trunk.ln_b_gain_d / ln_b_bias_d. LN_b is the LayerNorm after
Mamba2 stack 2.

Verification: golden bit-exact; ml-alpha lib green.

Per spec §2.2 (X6).
2026-05-19 01:44:48 +02:00
jgrusewski
5a534e9972 refactor(ml-alpha): move Mamba2 stack 2 from PerceptionTrainer to CfcTrunk (X5)
Same pattern as X3: trainer constructs mamba2_l2 + Mamba2AdamW (against
&mamba2_l2), then moves the block into trunk.mamba2_stack_2. All
forward/backward/AdamW access sites redirect to self.trunk.mamba2_l2_mut().
Gradient buffers + AdamW state remain at trainer level.

Verification: golden bit-exact; ml-alpha lib green.

Per spec §2.2 (X5).
2026-05-19 01:43:00 +02:00
jgrusewski
868021e818 refactor(ml-alpha): move LN_a weights from PerceptionTrainer to CfcTrunk (X4)
LN_a gain/bias tensors now live at self.trunk.ln_a_gain_d / ln_a_bias_d.
Trainer-side initialization values still drive the upload, preserving
PRNG-driven init values. Gradient buffers + AdamW state remain at
trainer level.

Verification: golden bit-exact (max_diff = 0.000000); ml-alpha lib green.

Per spec 2026-05-19-ml-alpha-v2-trunk-grows-and-deployability-design.md §2.2 (X4).
2026-05-19 01:41:19 +02:00
jgrusewski
2d849dd5e3 refactor(ml-alpha): move Mamba2 stack 1 from PerceptionTrainer to CfcTrunk (X3)
PerceptionTrainer no longer owns the Mamba2 stack-1 block; the trunk's
mamba2_stack_1 Option is filled in after Mamba2Block::new (which still
runs at the same point in PerceptionTrainer::new so the Mamba2 weight
init order is unchanged). Mamba2AdamW was already constructed against
&mamba2 before the move, so optimizer state is preserved.

CfcTrunk gains mamba2_l1_mut() / mamba2_l1() / mamba2_l2_mut() / mamba2_l2()
accessors that unwrap the Options. Forward, backward, and AdamW step
sites in evaluate_batched / step_batched / evaluate redirect through the
new accessors.

Gradient buffers (mamba2_grads_buffers) and AdamW state (mamba2_adamw)
remain at trainer level — training-only state stays with the trainer.

Verification:
- perception_forward_golden: PASS (max_diff = 0.000000)
- ml-alpha lib tests: 34 pass

Per spec 2026-05-19-ml-alpha-v2-trunk-grows-and-deployability-design.md §1.1, §2.2 (X3).
EOF
)
2026-05-19 01:39:47 +02:00
jgrusewski
fdef6efe98 refactor(ml-alpha): move VSN weights from PerceptionTrainer to CfcTrunk
PerceptionTrainer gains a `trunk: CfcTrunk` field constructed at the
top of `new()` (after the determinism seed guard). VSN's
weight tensors (`vsn_w_d`, `vsn_b_d`) now live on `self.trunk`; the
trainer-owned copies are removed. Forward + backward + AdamW access
sites redirect to `self.trunk.vsn_w_d` / `self.trunk.vsn_b_d`.

PRNG-state preservation: the trainer's ChaCha8Rng chain still draws
VSN values at the same call position as before, then memcpy_htod's
them into the trunk's zero-initialised VSN slots from X1. This keeps
every downstream weight (attn_q, ...) bit-identical to the pre-X2
layout — perception_forward_golden continues to pass with
max_diff = 0.000000.

Gradient buffers (`grad_vsn_w_d`, `grad_vsn_b_d`) and AdamW state
(`opt_vsn_w`, `opt_vsn_b`) remain at trainer level — they're
training-only and shouldn't move to the inference trunk.

Verification:
- perception_forward_golden: PASS (max_diff = 0.000000)
- ml-alpha lib tests: 34 pass
- alpha_train example builds clean

Per spec 2026-05-19-ml-alpha-v2-trunk-grows-and-deployability-design.md
§1.1, §2.2 (X2).

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-19 01:30:12 +02:00
jgrusewski
e338000eec feat(ml-alpha): CfcTrunk v2 weight skeleton (no callers yet)
Adds zero-initialised v2 weight tensors (VSN, LN_a/b, attn_q, GRN heads)
and Option<Mamba2Block> slots for stacks 1 and 2 to CfcTrunk. Extends
CfcConfig with mamba2_state_dim (default 16, matches
PerceptionTrainerConfig::default). Imports HEAD_MID_DIM for GRN head
sizing.

No forward path changes — fields allocated, not yet read. Existing
new_random init for V1 fields (CfC + simple heads + projection) is
preserved unchanged so the trunk's forward kernels still produce the
same output.

Skeleton for X2..X9 weight-group migrations.

Verification:
- ml-alpha lib tests: 34 pass
- perception_forward_golden bit-equivalence: PASS (max_diff = 0.000000)

Per spec 2026-05-19-ml-alpha-v2-trunk-grows-and-deployability-design.md
§1.1, §2.2 (X1).
2026-05-19 01:23:05 +02:00
jgrusewski
b47b2fabfb fix(ml-core): deterministic GPU weight init via scoped_init_seed
ml_core::cuda_autograd::init::generate_uniform (backing xavier_uniform,
kaiming_uniform, bias_uniform, near_zero_xavier) defaulted to seeding
from SystemTime::now() + thread_id, producing non-reproducible weights
across processes. Mamba2 stacks initialise via OwnedGpuLinear::xavier,
which routes through this helper — so PerceptionTrainer.evaluate output
diverged 5-30% across fresh-process runs with identical cfg.seed.

Fix: thread-local seedable RNG override. New API:

    let _g = ml_core::cuda_autograd::init::scoped_init_seed(seed);
    // ... all xavier/kaiming/bias/near_zero calls draw from
    //     StdRng::seed_from_u64(seed) chain while _g is alive ...
    // _g dropped here -> restores default time-based seeding

PerceptionTrainer::new now installs the guard before any Mamba2Block
construction, so the trainer is reproducible from cfg.seed end-to-end.
CfC/VSN/heads already used explicit ChaCha8Rng::seed_from_u64 — only
Mamba2 was affected.

Production behavior unchanged when no guard is set. ml-core: 306 tests
pass, ml-alpha: 34 lib tests pass.

Regression test: crates/ml-alpha/tests/perception_forward_golden.rs
captures bit-exact PerceptionTrainer.evaluate output (loss + 160 probs
on a deterministic seed=42 fixture) into a 644-byte golden file.
Three consecutive runs now produce max_abs_diff=0; pre-fix runs varied
by 0.1-0.3 absolute on individual probs.

.gitignore: added exception for crates/ml-alpha/tests/fixtures/*.bin
so deterministic test fixtures land in repo.

Per pearl_scoped_init_seed_for_reproducibility in project memory.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-19 01:19:13 +02:00
jgrusewski
d45dde8458 plan(ml-alpha): trunk-grows refactor + deployability validation roadmap
20-commit atomic ladder (X0–X19) + Phase 1→2 gate + Phase 2 runtime
runbook. Implements spec da1dd92bf:

  X0:    perception_forward_golden fixture (bit-equivalence gate)
  X1:    CfcTrunk v2 weight skeleton (no callers)
  X2–X9: incremental weight-group migrations (VSN, Mamba2 ×2, LN ×2,
         attn-pool, CfC, GRN heads), each gated by golden fixture
  X10:   hoist forward kernels into CfcTrunk methods
  X11:   capture_graph_a covers full v2 forward + captured-vs-uncaptured
         equivalence test
  X12:   CheckpointV2 envelope + save/load (V1 hard-rejected)
  X13:   PerceptionTrainer.save_checkpoint delegate
  X14:   alpha_train saves best_h6000 checkpoint
  X15:   verify ml-backtesting accepts CheckpointV2 (no code change)
  X16:   max_drawdown_pct with \$35k base
  X17:   emit_deployability_verdict + tiered logic + 6 unit tests
  X18:   GPU smoke test against real trained checkpoint
  X19:   three sweep YAMLs (smoke, threshold-tuning, deployability)
  Gate:  fold-0 smoke must reproduce recorded 3-fold A/B numbers
         within ±0.010 absolute before Phase 2 begins
  P.1–6: Argo runtime (training → smoke → threshold → sweep → verdict)

Self-review confirms 1:1 spec coverage. Three soft adaptation points
(HEAD_MID constant, Mamba2Block accessors, BacktestHarnessConfig field
names) resolve at code-read time. One placeholder (todo!() in X11
explanatory text) is called out in self-review for replacement when
that commit lands.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-19 01:04:30 +02:00
jgrusewski
da1dd92bf8 spec(ml-alpha): trunk-grows refactor + deployability validation (supersedes prior)
Supersedes the 2026-05-19 deployability spec (commit 07d5de504). The
prior spec assumed CfcTrunk::save_checkpoint was the producer-side
wiring point — discovered at execution time that alpha_train trains via
PerceptionTrainer (full v2: VSN + Mamba2 ×2 + LN ×2 + attn-pool + CfC +
heads), not the simpler CfcTrunk. The existing LOB backtester loads
CheckpointV1 envelopes that only know about CfC weights, so there is no
producer for a checkpoint containing the full v2 model.

New scope: one bigger spec covering refactor + deployability end-to-end.

Phase 1 (X0–X19, code commits): grow CfcTrunk to own the full v2
inference graph; restructure PerceptionTrainer to wrap a trunk + add
training-only state (grads, AdamW). Discipline: bit-equivalence golden
fixture (X0) gates every refactor commit (X1–X11). CheckpointV2
envelope (X12) replaces V1. Verdict emitter (X17) reuses the tiered
classification (Pass-robust / Pass-nominal / Fail-inconclusive / Fail /
Fail-degenerate) from the superseded spec.

Phase 2 (Argo runtime): production training → smoke gate → threshold
pre-registration → 560-cell deployability sweep → verdict + memory
update.

Hard gate before Phase 2: post-refactor fold-0 smoke must reproduce
recorded 3-fold A/B numbers (best_mean_auc 0.7529, best_h6000 0.7639,
both within ±0.010 absolute) from project_ml_alpha_v2_ab_verdict
memory. Prior spec marked SUPERSEDED in its header, kept in history as
audit trail.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-19 00:54:45 +02:00
jgrusewski
4938ac2ec5 plan(ml-alpha): v2 deployability validation — atomic-commit roadmap
Five-commit implementation plan + two-step runtime runbook for the
deployability spec committed at 07d5de504. Bite-sized TDD tasks:

  C1: wire save_checkpoint(best_h6000) into alpha_train.rs (~10 LOC)
  C2: max_drawdown_pct field on Summary, $35k starting-capital base
  C3: emit_deployability_verdict + tiered logic + 6 unit tests
  C4: GPU integration smoke test (#[ignore], env-var-gated)
  C5: three sweep YAMLs (smoke, threshold-tuning, deployability)
  C6: runtime — Argo prod training → smoke → threshold pre-reg → full sweep
  C7: commit verdict, update memory

Self-review confirms 1:1 spec section ↔ task coverage. Two soft
adaptation points (AlphaTrainSummary struct name, BacktestHarnessConfig
defaults) marked as code-read-and-adapt; no hard TBDs.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-19 00:40:15 +02:00
jgrusewski
07d5de5048 spec(ml-alpha): v2 deployability — stress anchor + max-dd gate + diagnostics
User revisions to design spec from this session:

1. §2.1 — split anchor into realistic (200 ms, 1 tick) and stress (400 ms,
   1.5 tick). Realistic remains the hard verdict gate; stress grades the Pass
   into Pass-robust vs Pass-nominal.

2. §2.2 — expand metrics from Sharpe-only to four: annualized daily Sharpe
   and max-drawdown are hard gates (median across windows > 1.0 and < 20%
   respectively); Sortino and profit factor are diagnostics. Per-window
   summary.json schema extended.

3. §2.6 — verdict emitter rewrites to two-anchor logic, tiered output:
   Pass-robust / Pass-nominal / Fail-inconclusive / Fail / Fail-degenerate.

4. §3.3 — added max-dd computation and zero-trade-window failure modes.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-19 00:32:30 +02:00
jgrusewski
0809390cd5 spec(ml-alpha): v2 deployability validation — falsifiable LOB-backtest verdict
Closes the wiring gap between the existing real-LOB backtest system (C1–C19 on
this branch) and the v2 ml-alpha model. alpha_train.rs currently never calls
save_checkpoint, so the LOB harness/sweep/aggregate machinery has never been
pointed at a real trained model.

Design defines a single-pass falsifiable deployability gate: produce a
production checkpoint (cv-n-folds=1, cv-train-window=4 → train on 2024
quarters, val on 2025-Q1, hold out 2025-Q2..2026-Q1), pre-register one
threshold on the W0 val window, then evaluate median Sharpe across 4
held-out walk-forward quarters at the realistic Scaleway→IBKR anchor (200ms
RTT, 1-tick all-in cost). Pass iff median > 1.0; inconclusive in [0.8, 1.0]
counts as fail; smoke gate halts the full sweep on any wiring failure.

Approved through brainstorming. Awaiting user spec-review before plan
handoff.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-19 00:26:48 +02:00
jgrusewski
6b7920474d spec(ml-alpha): mark AUC-regret controller SUPERSEDED — empirically falsified
The motivating "50% saturation hit-rate" observation came from gm67g
fold 0 (Option-2 config, commit 004b662c8 — itself a -0.003 mean_auc
regression vs ISV-σ at 410ab6b0e). Re-running the same diagnostic on
the actual production baseline (ISV-σ 3 folds: rxm5t/r57lx/x24d6,
logs retrieved from MinIO argo-logs bucket) on 215 horizon-epoch
observations:

  saturated λ→AUC up:     8/13 = 61.5%   median Δauc = +0.0025
  non-saturated→AUC up:  96/202 = 47.5%   median Δauc = -0.0012
  difference:            +14pp in favor of the controller working

The BCE-z-score controller is empirically correlated with the
optimization target. No evidence it's misaligned with AUC. Spec
premise falsified.

Spec retained in tree as historical record. The diagnostic
methodology itself (saturation→Δauc analysis on archived MinIO logs)
is the durable artifact and is documented in the supersede block.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-18 23:24:01 +02:00
jgrusewski
e004d6c217 Revert "arch(ml-alpha): restore count-delta redundancy at feature slot [26]"
This reverts commit 008f65d894.
2026-05-18 23:16:38 +02:00
jgrusewski
1fc100ae74 spec(ml-alpha): AUC-regret controller — replace BCE-z-score signal with per-horizon-regret
The current λ controller boosts horizons by BCE-EMA z-score, which conflates
three distinct causes of high BCE — only one of which (under-trained
horizon) benefits from boosting. The other two (intrinsically harder
horizon, calibration drift) are unaffected by gradient-magnitude lifts.

Empirical motivation (gm67g fold-0, this branch's 3-fold run):
when λ_h6000 saturated at 2.0, h6000's next-epoch AUC went UP 2/4
times and DOWN 2/4 times. 50% hit rate ⇒ the BCE saturation signal
is misaligned with the optimization objective.

This spec replaces BCE-z-score with AUC-regret:

  best_auc[h]     = running max of per-horizon validation AUC
  regret[h]       = max(0, best_auc[h] - current_auc[h])
  regret_max_ema  = EMA of max_h regret[h]
  λ[h]            = clamp(1.0, 2.0, 1 + regret[h] / regret_max_ema)

Properties:
  - Aligned with the objective (AUC, not BCE)
  - Naturally bounded (regret ∈ [0, 1])
  - "At personal best" → λ=1.0 (no wasted boost)
  - Auto-saturation by design (max-regret horizon → ceiling)
  - Cold-start clean (e0: best=current, regret=0, uniform λ)
  - Zero hardcoded magic beyond bootstrap epsilons

Implementation surface ~250 LOC:
  - Split horizon_lambda kernel: horizon_loss_ema (per-step) +
    horizon_lambda (per-epoch, AUC-regret math)
  - Trainer state: drop z_max_ema, add best_auc + regret_max_ema
  - Per-epoch entry point: trainer.update_lambda_from_auc()
  - Extend isv snapshot log line with best_auc_h* + regret_h*

Test plan:
  - Local 9/9 perception_overfit
  - New synthetic-AUC unit test (controller correctness)
  - Cluster 5-epoch smoke + 3-fold A/B vs Option-2 baseline (004b662c8)
  - Success: mean_auc lifts ≥ +0.005 AND median sat→next-AUC delta positive

Awaiting user review before plan handoff.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-18 23:06:29 +02:00
jgrusewski
004b662c80 obs(ml-alpha): per-N-step train_loss log line for liveness + intra-epoch monitor
Adds a single tracing::info!("step") emitted every 500 training steps:

  if epoch_train_steps % 500 == 0 {
      tracing::info!(epoch, step = epoch_train_steps, loss = loss, "step");
  }

Consumed by /tmp/alpha_monitor.py (v2: per-epoch trajectories + ISV +
liveness) to render intra-epoch loss trajectory and detect stalls
faster than the once-per-epoch granularity allowed.

At 8000 steps/epoch and ~36s/epoch on L40S → ~16 step lines per epoch
per fold, well below the cluster log volume budget.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-18 22:33:44 +02:00
jgrusewski
008f65d894 arch(ml-alpha): restore count-delta redundancy at feature slot [26]
The C16 tick-rule swap (19986c8d9) replaced the dense `trade_count` delta
at snap_feature_assemble's slot [18] with a signed L1 tick-rule estimate.
That broke a load-bearing redundancy in Phase 1+2+3:

  Phase 1+2+3 feature [17] = log1p(trade_count_delta)
  Phase 1+2+3 feature [18] = signed_log1p(trade_count_delta)
                           = log1p(trade_count_delta) for count ≥ 0

Within a file, `cur.trade_count >= prev.trade_count` (monotonic), so the
delta is non-negative and the two features were *bit-identical* floats.
The encoder's Mamba2 W_in had two random-initialised rows projecting the
same dense signal, giving it effective 2× capacity allocation on
trade-flow.

Post-C16:
  feature [17] = log1p(trade_count_delta)         (unchanged)
  feature [18] = signed_log1p(tick_rule_estimate) (new, uncorrelated)

Empirical (7.8M ES MBP-10 snapshots, Q1+Q2 2024 production data):

  | Stat                   | OLD count_delta | NEW tick_rule   |
  |------------------------|-----------------|-----------------|
  | zero rate              | 10.2%           | 49.1%           |
  | mean ± std             | 4.26 ± 3.82     | -0.18 ± 10.95   |
  | max |value|            | 100             | 3378            |
  | Pearson r vs count     | 1.0000 (id)     | 0.0002          |

  Sign-class breakdown vs Phase 1+2+3 slot [18]:
    44.3% new=0 but old≠0  (44% of true trades MISSED by tick-rule)
     5.5% new≠0 but old=0  (cancel-as-trade false positives)
    22.8% both positive    (agree)
     0.0% both negative    (old never negative)
    22.6% sign disagreement (old saw trades, new says "seller")

The tick-rule heuristic is a strictly different (and noisier) signal,
not a superset. Three mechanisms simultaneously regressed mean_auc:
  A) lost 2× W_in capacity on count signal
  B) noisier signal at slot [18]
  C) extreme outliers (max 33× wider) destabilise LayerNorm at [18]

Fix (Option 2 per the diagnostic):

  out[26] = signed_log1p((float) trade_count)

Restores the duplicate count-delta signal at a previously-reserved slot.
Slot [18] keeps the new tick-rule signal — the 5.5% "signal added" and
the directional info at L1 are still available. FEATURE_DIM (40) is
unchanged; LayerNorm + Mamba2 W_in dimensions are unchanged.

Both the single-snapshot kernel and the batched kernel are updated.
`snap_feature_bit_equiv::reserved_slots_are_zero` updated to assert
the new slot-26 semantics (signed_log1p of synthetic trade_count=7
= log(8) ≈ 2.079).

All 9 perception_overfit tests pass + all 9 snap_feature_bit_equiv
tests pass.

Cluster verification: single-fold smoke + 3-fold validation follow.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-18 22:19:23 +02:00
jgrusewski
17eb825113 arch(ml-alpha): σ becomes sidecar — BCE drops Kendall damping (upgraded path)
Empirical record at this data + this architecture:
  Phase 1+2+3 (no σ in loss):           mean_auc 0.7749 ± 0.024
  v2 (σ + axes B/C/D/E):                mean_auc 0.7541 ± 0.005
  σ-only (kept σ, dropped B/C/D/E):     mean_auc 0.7506 ± 0.008
  Perf-fix (σ-only math):               mean_auc 0.7499 ± 0.010
  ISV-σ (closed-form σ + adaptive λ):   mean_auc ~0.75 (2/3 folds)

Every architecture with σ-in-loss lands at 0.75. Removing σ is the
only thing that hits 0.77. That is a framework mismatch, not a tuning
problem.

Kendall+Gal+Cipolla 2018 frames σ as TASK NOISE level — damp the noisy
task, trust the clean one. Our horizons don't have different label
noise; they have different intrinsic difficulty (longer horizon = more
price-walk uncertainty = lower achievable AUC). σ-Kendall sees "high
BCE on h6000" and interprets it as "h6000 is unreliable, back off" —
precisely the opposite of what we want. h6000 is the deployment
target; damping it is a self-inflicted wound. With mean_bce ~ 0.7,
σ ≈ √0.7 ≈ 0.84 ⇒ w_h ≈ 0.71, uniformly attenuating gradient by
~30% across every horizon. λ's z-score boost (max 2×) can rebalance
relative-per-horizon but cannot recover the absolute magnitude.

Per-horizon prioritization remains via the ISV-driven λ controller
(grad scaler in heads_grn_bwd, per pearl_adam_normalizes_loss_weights).
That controller IS appropriate for our problem: it boosts hard
horizons rather than damping them, and it operates on the gradient
into the trunk rather than on the loss aggregate (Adam-cancellation
safe).

Changes to bce_loss_multi_horizon.cu (six lines):
  w_h    = bw                  (was: 0.5 * bw * exp(-2 * log_sigma_h))
  d_log_sigma_h[h] = 0.0       (was: 1 - 2 * w_h * mean_bce)
  total_loss += bw * mean_bce  (was: + w_h * mean_bce + log_sigma_h)

σ infrastructure preserved unchanged:
  - horizon_ema_and_lambda still computes log_sigma_h closed-form from
    loss_ema (Kendall equilibrium) for telemetry / future label-noise
    estimation use cases
  - log_sigma_h kernel arg still in BCE signature (zero churn at
    callsite); ignored inside

All 9 perception_overfit tests pass — including
horizon_ema_and_lambda_track_after_training which validates the
per-horizon controller end-to-end through 64 K-loop iterations of
capture/replay.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-18 21:12:45 +02:00
jgrusewski
410ab6b0ea arch(ml-alpha): ISV-driven σ + adaptive Z_SCALE — both controllers anchor on loss_ema
Per pearl_controller_anchors_isv_driven, every controller anchor/target/
cap derives from a tracked signal, not hardcoded constants. The σ-only
revert kept Kendall σ as a free Adam-learned scalar — that violated ISV
discipline and fought Adam's m/√v normalization
(pearl_adam_normalizes_loss_weights).

Single source of truth for both per-horizon controllers:

  log_sigma_h[h]  ← max(log(0.5), 0.5 * log(loss_ema[h]))
                    Kendall equilibrium (∂L/∂log σ = 0 ⟹ σ_h² = mean_bce_h)
                    in closed form. Asymmetric floor at log(0.5) prevents
                    collapse. No Adam state, no gradient delay.

  lambda[h]       ← clamp(1.0, 2.0, 1.0 + Z_SCALE_ISV * z_h)
                    Z_SCALE_ISV = (LAMBDA_CEILING - LAMBDA_FLOOR) / z_max_ema
                    Adaptive scale auto-uses the full clamp envelope:
                    the historical-max-z horizon maps exactly to
                    LAMBDA_CEILING. Replaces hardcoded Z_SCALE=0.5 which
                    rarely engaged on real data (max observed λ ~1.04).

Both anchor on the same ISV (loss_ema). z_max_ema is a new single-scalar
EMA state tracking max |z| across horizons, with first-obs bootstrap.

Removes:
  - opt_log_sigma AdamW optimizer (σ no longer learned)
  - grad_log_sigma_h_d memset (BCE kernel writes; output ignored — kept
    only to preserve BCE kernel signature)

Kernel signature change (horizon_ema_and_lambda):
  +z_max_ema [1]       (read+write EMA state)
  +log_sigma_h [5]     (closed-form output, overwrite)

Discipline:
  - First-obs bootstrap (sentinel <= 0) per pearl_first_observation_bootstrap
  - Permanent floor (max(real, floor)) per pearl_blend_formulas_must_have_permanent_floor
  - Asymmetric clamp per pearl_audit_unboundedness_for_implicit_asymmetry
  - Z-score normalisation per pearl_zscore_normalization_for_magnitude_asymmetric_signals
  - No nvrtc, no atomicAdd, no host branches in graph capture

All 9 perception_overfit tests pass — including
horizon_ema_and_lambda_track_after_training which validates the kernel
end-to-end through 64 K-loop iterations of capture/replay.

Submit local smoke; cluster A/B vs σ-only baseline (0.7506/0.7519) and
vs Phase 1+2+3 (0.7749/0.7591) follows once the perf-only 3-fold A/B
confirms no regression at b23f8f2ef.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-18 19:32:03 +02:00
jgrusewski
b23f8f2efa perf(ml-alpha): NVIDIA-grade rewrite of CfC K-loop hot kernels — 2.15× faster
Local L40S profile (perception_overfit smoke) GPU kernel time:
  1589ms → 739ms  (53.5% reduction, 2.15× speedup).
Wall-clock smoke: 9.6s → 4.94s (1.94× faster).

Per-kernel deltas (nsys --cuda-graph-trace=node):

  reduce_axis0:              362ms → 10ms   (36× faster)
    Block layout: per-column (1 block / output) → 32-wide column tile
    (block_dim = 32 × 8). Cross-thread reads were strided by n_tail
    (~40K floats = 160KB stride) — one cache line per thread, 8× HBM
    bandwidth wasted. New tile gives coalesced 128B transactions per
    warp. Block tree-reduce kept (no atomicAdd, per feedback_no_atomicadd).
    +1 shared-mem pad to eliminate 32-way bank conflict on the ty reduce.

  multi_horizon_heads_grn_bwd_batched:  540ms → 113ms  (4.8× faster)
    1. Stage h_row[HIDDEN] and a1[5,HEAD_MID] in shared at block entry.
       Eliminates ~28K redundant DRAM reads/block across Pass 3 + Pass 5.
    2. Pass 5 reorder: k outer / i inner with d_z1[k,m] pinned in
       register; writes to grad_w1_scratch are sequential per-thread.
    3. Block size 64 → 128 threads. Pass 5/6 now partition over i
       (output column): cross-thread writes become COALESCED 128B/warp
       (was stride-128 = 512B). Passes 2/3/4 gate on (tid < HEAD_MID).
    4. Pass 3 thread role: m_out → m_in/n. Same coalescing fix on
       grad_w2 writes AND w2 reads in the d_eta_2 sum.

  cfc_step_backward_batched: 351ms → 271ms  (1.3× faster)
    1. Stage x_b[n_in] and h_old_b[n_hid] in shared (was 128× redundant
       DRAM reads per block; now 1× cooperative load).
    2. Pass 1 thread role: i (output row) → k (output col). For each
       i loop iteration, the warp writes grad_w_in[..., tid] /
       grad_w_rec[..., tid] — COALESCED 128B/warp (was stride-128
       non-coalesced).

  multi_horizon_heads_grn_fwd_batched:  211ms → 204ms
    Stage h_row[HIDDEN] in shared — Pass 1 and Pass 3 both consume.

  cfc_step_batched (fwd):     95ms →  94ms
    Stage x_b and h_old_b in shared.

Shared-mem budgets fit comfortably under the 48KB SM cap (~6KB / ~2KB
respectively). All 9 perception_overfit tests pass — gradient
correctness validated end-to-end (constant-signal overfit, K-loop
capture/replay, stride-4 path, evaluate-only paths).

Discipline:
  - Block tree-reduce only, never atomicAdd
  - No nvrtc; pre-compiled cubins via build.rs
  - Mapped-pinned-only is unaffected (CPU↔GPU contract untouched)
  - Single source of truth: replaced kernels in place, no v2 suffixes

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-18 19:07:29 +02:00
jgrusewski
1a465cf7d5 refactor(ml-alpha): revert axes B/C/D/E — keep only Kendall σ (axis A)
Post-A/B verdict (see project_ml_alpha_v2_ab_verdict.md): v2 with all
5 axes was marginally tied on h6000 (+0.0013 vs 0.7591 baseline mean,
fails the +0.01 win threshold) and slightly below on mean_auc
(−0.0208 vs 0.7749 baseline mean, within 1σ) at ~5× the wall-time
cost. Per `feedback_v7_gem_methodology` (measure before delete or
wire), the architecture has been measured — it doesn't earn its
compute cost. This commit reverts the axes that didn't lift:

  - axis B (L2 anchor + Wiener-α controller) — DROPPED
  - axis C (horizon-token attention pool)    — DROPPED
  - axis D (regime-MoE gate + experts)       — DROPPED
  - axis E (inverted cross-variate attn)     — DROPPED
  - axis A (Kendall σ-weighted BCE)          — KEPT

Files deleted (kernels, host bindings, numgrad tests, trainer state):
  - cuda/{horizon_token_attention_pool, inverted_attention_pool,
          inv_pooled_merge, regime_moe_gate, anchor_l2,
          horizon_mean_collapse}.cu
  - src/{horizon_token_attention_pool, inverted_attention_pool,
         inv_pooled_merge, regime_moe_gate, anchor_l2,
         horizon_mean_collapse}.rs
  - src/trainer/{multi_horizon_attention, anchor_controller}.rs
  - tests/{horizon_token_attention_pool_numgrad,
           inverted_attention_pool_numgrad,
           regime_moe_gate_numgrad,
           anchor_l2_numgrad}.rs

Files restored (from V1 commit 41292303d):
  - cuda/attention_pool.cu — legacy single-Q attention pool kernel
  - src/trainer/perception.rs — pre-MHA trainer state with the
    legacy `attn_*` plumbing intact.

Files modified:
  - bce_loss_multi_horizon.cu stays σ-aware (kept the V7 work; it
    has the kernel function name preserved from V1).
  - perception.rs: ADD `log_sigma_h_d [N_HORIZONS]`,
    `grad_log_sigma_h_d [N_HORIZONS]`, `opt_log_sigma` AdamW
    directly on PerceptionTrainer (no MHA bundle). BCE callsites in
    `step_batched` (training) and `evaluate_batched` thread the σ
    args. Grad scratch zeroed each step before the BCE launch.
    `opt_log_sigma.step` lives in section 9 alongside the other
    AdamW updates.

NET DIFF: 23 files, 442 insertions, 3160 deletions (~2700-line
cleanup).

LOCAL VERIFICATION (RTX 3050 sm_86, --test-threads=1):
  - ml-alpha builds clean (cuda feature)
  - bce_grad_finite_diff 4/4 PASS (BCE still works through σ-kernel)
  - perception_overfit 9/9 PASS (full trainer pipeline, loss-shrinks
    tests still green)

NEXT: cluster smoke + 3-fold A/B vs task #200 baseline. Expected
wall-time ≈ baseline 17 s/epoch (we're back to baseline architecture
plus 5 scalar Kendall σ params + 1 tiny AdamW). Expected lift on
mean_auc: modest — Kendall σ rebalances per-horizon contributions
based on observed BCE EMA, which may help horizons with intrinsically
higher noise floors.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-18 18:11:05 +02:00
jgrusewski
4ae9a27f48 fix(ml-alpha): wire axis E into loss — real add_inv_broadcast kernel
CRITICAL ARCHITECTURAL FIX discovered while planning fused kernel:

The previous Stage 2 `add_inv_broadcast` helper in
`multi_horizon_attention.rs` was a STUB that returned Ok(()) without
doing anything. Practical consequences:

  - Forward: `inv_pooled_d` (output of inverted_attention_pool.forward)
    was never added into `ctx_h_d`. Downstream MoE + heads never saw
    the inverted-attention signal. Axis E contributed ZERO to the
    forward output and the loss.
  - Backward: `inv_pool.backward` was being fed `grad_ctx_mean` as
    its "upstream gradient", but that's the gradient at the CHAIN
    TERMINUS — not the gradient w.r.t. inv_pooled_d (which is zero
    by construction since inv_pooled wasn't in the loss). The bwd
    was injecting incorrect noise into `grad_ln_out`.

Net: paying inverted_attention compute for no gain, plus polluting
ln_b's gradient. Two perf rewrite rounds earlier today showed no
wall-time movement precisely because the slow path was wired into
training while the optimized one was dead.

FIX:

(a) New kernel `cuda/inv_pooled_merge.cu`:
    fwd: ctx_h[b, h, d] += inv_pooled[b, d]           (broadcast over h)
    bwd: grad_inv_pooled[b, d] = Σ_h grad_ctx_h[b, h, d]
    Tiny — single block-per-batch, no syncthreads, coalesced reads.

(b) Host binding `src/inv_pooled_merge.rs` (InvPooledMerge).

(c) `MultiHorizonAttention` adds:
    - `merge: InvPooledMerge` field.
    - `grad_inv_pooled_d [B, H]` buffer for the real upstream of inv_pool.bwd.

(d) `MultiHorizonAttention.forward` now calls `merge.forward(...)`
    between inv_pool.forward and moe.forward. Axis E is now actually
    in the model's forward output.

(e) `MultiHorizonAttention.backward` now calls `merge.backward` after
    moe.bwd writes `grad_ctx_h_d`, producing `grad_inv_pooled_d`.
    `inv_pool.backward` consumes the REAL upstream gradient
    (`grad_inv_pooled_d`) instead of the prior `grad_ctx_mean` fake.

(f) Old stub `add_inv_broadcast` deleted.

CORRECTNESS:
  - perception_overfit 9/9 PASS after the wiring. Loss still shrinks
    on the constant-signal test (0.67 → -0.99 over 250 steps), now
    with axis E actually contributing.
  - All numgrad kernel tests still pass (kernels themselves unchanged
    in this commit; only the wiring).

PERF IMPACT (expected):
  - +2 tiny launches per step (merge fwd + bwd). Negligible.
  - The inverted-attention compute that was previously dead now
    actually feeds the loss → same wall-time, but it's earning the
    cost. This unblocks meaningful axis-E perf measurement on next
    smoke.

NEXT: re-run cluster smoke to confirm wall-time + verify axis E
gradient flow is healthy. After that, consider full MHA forward
fusion as a follow-up.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-18 16:16:31 +02:00
jgrusewski
11b964359b perf(ml-alpha): MoE bwd compact scratch + scatter kernel + inv-attn loop interchange
Two perf optimizations bundled:

(1) MoE backward scratch compaction
    Old: `grad_w_scratch_d [B, N_H, N_E, H, H]` = 1.3 MB per step (B=1)
    New: `grad_w_scratch_d [B, N_H, H, H]`      = 320 KB per step
    4× memory reduction. Since each batch's top-1 router selects ONE
    expert, only that expert's slot was ever non-zero in the prior
    layout — the N_E axis was entirely wasteful.

    The shape change required:
    - Updated `regime_moe_gate_bwd` to write the compact layout.
    - New `regime_moe_gate_scatter` kernel scatters per-(b, h)
      rank-1 contributions into `grad_experts_W[e]` / `grad_experts_b[e]`
      based on `top_e[b]`. Grid (N_E, H, ceil(H/32)) × block (32) —
      one warp per (e, d_out, d_in_chunk). 65536 → 16384 grid cells
      (4× fewer blocks dispatched).
    - Dropped the previously-naive 65536-block `reduce_axis0` for
      `grad_experts_w` from `perception.rs` (the scatter kernel
      produces the final per-expert grad directly).
    - `tests/regime_moe_gate_numgrad.rs` reads `grad_experts_w` from
      the scatter output instead of host-side reducing the 5D scratch.

(2) inverted_attention bwd loop interchange
    Phase 2's tight loop:
      for k:
        for j:
          ds_myh_j = d_scores[my_h, j]   // doesn't depend on k!
          ds_j_myh = d_scores[j, my_h]   // doesn't depend on k!
          ...
    Hoisted d_scores reads out of the K-loop into J-outer with
    per-thread `q_arr[K_MAX]` / `k_arr[K_MAX]` register accumulators.
    Net: 32× fewer DRAM reads of d_scores per thread per bwd.

CORRECTNESS:
  - regime_moe_gate numgrad PASSES (1/1, 11 numgrad checks).
  - inverted_attention numgrad PASSES (1/1, 6 numgrad checks).
  - perception_overfit 9/9 PASS — including loss-shrinks tests.

NEXT: re-run cluster smoke to measure the new wall-time vs the 17 s
baseline. Prior smoke at a263cd544 was 11.26 s for 1000 steps; this
commit's smoke will reveal whether the MoE scratch compaction + loop
interchange land us closer to the 30 s/epoch gate.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-18 16:03:21 +02:00
jgrusewski
a263cd5446 perf(ml-alpha): inverted_attention_pool — cache mean_k, pre-compute pooled
The cluster smoke at 9170d24fe showed ~88 s/epoch projected for the
full 8000-step epoch (vs the 17 s baseline) — a 5× regression that
fails the spec §5 wall-time gate. Diagnosis: the inverted-attention
kernel's hot loops recomputed `mean_k_X_inv[j] = (1/K) Σ_k X_inv[j, k]`
per-thread, per-j, every pass:

  - fwd pool: 128 × 32 reads per thread = 4096 extra ops × 128 threads
    = ~0.5 M wasted ops per fwd
  - bwd phase 1: 128 × 32 × 2 passes per thread = ~1.0 M wasted ops
    per bwd

At 1000 steps/epoch this alone adds ~1.5 s of pointless compute, and
the cumulative effect across fwd + bwd + DRAM round-trips for the
score tensor was the main contributor to the 5× regression.

REWRITE:

1. `mean_k_X_inv[H]` (0.5 KB) cached ONCE in shared memory at kernel
   entry. Each thread h does its OWN k-trajectory load + sum in
   parallel during the x_inv staging, so no extra cost vs the prior
   x_inv-only stage.

2. Forward now does:
     - Pass 1: compute max(score) only — no DRAM writes.
     - Pass 2: compute exp(score - max) → write to attn_out (scratch),
       accumulate sum locally.
     - Pass 3: single sweep over j — divide attn_out by sum (in place),
       accumulate pool += attn · mean_k[j].  ← uses cached mean_k.
   Eliminates the post-softmax recompute of mean_k that the prior
   version did 128× per thread.

3. Backward `d_scores` computation now uses cached mean_k (saves 4096
   ops/thread). Also: `dot = pooled[my_h]` is now computed once at
   the start of phase 1 from attn × mean_k (one pass over j) instead
   of being implicit in the per-j d_attn computation.

CORRECTNESS:
  - inverted_attention_pool numgrad PASSES 6 random-position checks
    within 5e-2 rel / 5e-3 abs.
  - perception_overfit 9/9 tests PASS — including
    stacked_trainer_loss_shrinks_on_constant_signal (loss 0.67 → -0.99
    over 250 steps).

SMEM FOOTPRINT:
  - fwd:  x_inv[H · K] + mean_k[H]              = 16 KB + 0.5 KB
  - bwd:  x_inv[H · K] + mean_k[H] + dp[H]      = 16 KB + 1 KB
  Both well under the 48 KB sm_86 dynamic-shared default; no
  cuFuncSetAttribute opt-in needed.

Next: re-run cluster smoke to measure the new wall-time. Expected to
land ≤ 30 s/epoch per spec §5 wall-time gate.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-18 15:50:33 +02:00
jgrusewski
9170d24fe3 refactor(ml-alpha): replace legacy attention_pool with MultiHorizonAttention [Stage 2]
Single source of truth for the attention path. Deletes the legacy
single-Q `attention_pool.cu` and all `attn_*` fields from
`PerceptionTrainer`; wires `MultiHorizonAttention` (the bundle
introduced in Stage 1) into `step_batched` + `evaluate_batched` as
THE attention summary that seeds CfC's `h_old` at k=0.

Deletions:
  cuda/attention_pool.cu                      (244 lines)
  perception.rs::attn_q_d/attn_context_d/
    attn_weights_d/grad_attn_q_d/opt_attn_q/
    attn_fwd_fn/attn_bwd_fn/_attn_module/
    attn_grad_q_scratch_d                     (all struct fields)
  perception.rs::ATTENTION_POOL_CUBIN         (include_bytes constant)
  Their corresponding init + struct-construction lines.
  build.rs::KERNELS                           (drops "attention_pool")

New kernel + binding:
  cuda/horizon_mean_collapse.cu               (53 lines)
    - `horizon_mean_collapse_fwd/_bwd`: collapses [B, N_H, H] → [B, H]
      by averaging over the horizon axis. Single-pass, no reductions.
  src/horizon_mean_collapse.rs                 (host binding)

MHA additions:
  - `collapse` field + `ctx_mean_d` + `grad_ctx_mean_d` for the seed.
  - `grad_ctx_h_d` scratch (split from grad_horizon_tokens_scratch to
    avoid aliasing when MoE bwd writes d_ctx_h while pool bwd writes
    d_horizon_tokens).
  - `forward(ln_b_out)`: horizon-token pool → inverted pool → MoE
    dispatch → mean-collapse → ctx_mean_d.
  - `backward(ln_b_out, grad_ctx_mean, grad_ln_out)`: full reverse
    chain.
  - `apply_anchor()`: launches anchor_l2 on horizon_tokens, Q,
    experts_w.
  - `adamw_step()`: steps all 6 owned optimizer groups.

PerceptionTrainer integration:
  - Section 2d (forward): `self.mha.forward(&self.ln_out_d)` replaces
    the legacy attention_pool launch. CfC's h_old at k=0 now reads
    `self.mha.ctx_mean_d.device_ptr` (was `self.attn_context_d`).
  - Section 7c-pre (backward): `self.mha.backward(ln_out, grad_h_carry,
    grad_h_enriched_seq)` replaces the legacy attn_bwd_fn launch.
  - Four `reduce_axis0` launches collapse MHA's per-batch scratches
    into shared gradient buffers: grad_horizon_tokens, grad_q,
    grad_experts_w, grad_experts_b.
  - `self.mha.apply_anchor()` adds L2 anchor grad contributions.
  - Section 9 (AdamW): `self.mha.adamw_step()` replaces opt_attn_q.
  - `evaluate_batched`: `self.mha.forward` replaces the legacy fwd
    launch; h_old at k=0 reads `mha.ctx_mean_d`.
  - `self.mha.zero_grads()` at step start (capture-safe memset_zeros).

BUG CAUGHT DURING WIRING (NVIDIA-grade discipline): first wiring
attempt mis-sized the reduce_axis0 launches for the MoE
`grad_w_scratch_d` ([B, N_H, N_E, H, H]). Initial `n_tail = N_H * N_E
* H * H = 327680` would have made reduce_axis0 read 5× past the end
of the buffer → CUDA_ERROR_ILLEGAL_ADDRESS. Fix: `n_tail = N_E * H *
H = 65536` with `n_batch = B * N_H`, treating the leading two axes
together as the reduction dimension. Caught by stacked_trainer test
on RTX 3050; would have caused silent corruption then a hard fault
on L40S/H100 later.

LOCAL VERIFICATION (RTX 3050 sm_86):
  - ml-alpha builds clean (cuda feature).
  - All 38+ tests PASS serially with --test-threads=1:
      perception_overfit (8 tests incl. loss-shrinks)
      trunk_forward (5)
      stacked_loss_shrinks (multiple)
      bce_grad_finite_diff (4)
      snap_feature_assemble (9)
      ... (full suite green)
  - Numgrad parity for the 4 new MHA kernels (horizon_token, inv_attn,
    regime_moe_gate, anchor_l2) PASSES at 5e-2 rel.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-18 15:23:27 +02:00
jgrusewski
6a3f45d872 refactor(ml-alpha): consolidate BCE — Kendall σ is THE BCE, wire MHA into trainer
Single source of truth for the multi-horizon BCE per the new
feedback_single_source_of_truth_no_duplicates pearl. Eliminates the
`bce_loss_multi_horizon_sigma.cu` / `loss_sigma.rs` duplication
introduced earlier today and folds the Kendall σ-weighting into the
canonical kernel.

Deletions:
  cuda/bce_loss_multi_horizon_sigma.cu              (folded into legacy)
  src/trainer/loss_sigma.rs                         (helper merged)
  tests/bce_sigma_numgrad.rs                        (subsumed)

Rewrites:
  cuda/bce_loss_multi_horizon.cu — replaced with σ-aware
    implementation; kernel function name kept as
    `bce_multi_horizon_forward_backward` so cubin symbol stays stable.
    NVIDIA-grade warp-shuffle reduce (4 warps, 1 cross-warp barrier);
    new args `log_sigma_h` (per-horizon Kendall σ logarithm) and
    `d_log_sigma_h` (its gradient).
  src/trainer/loss.rs — standalone helper updated to new 11-arg
    kernel signature. Exposes optional `log_sigma_h` in `BceInput`
    (None → zeros / passthrough Kendall init) and returns
    `mean_bce_per_h` + `d_log_sigma_h` in `BceOutput`.
  tests/bce_grad_finite_diff.rs — adds `log_sigma_h: None` to the
    test inputs; all 4 numgrad tests PASS unchanged.
  build.rs — drops `bce_loss_multi_horizon_sigma` entry from
    KERNELS. The single canonical `bce_loss_multi_horizon` cubin
    now contains the σ-aware kernel.

Wiring:
  PerceptionTrainer gains a single `pub mha: MultiHorizonAttention`
    field. Owns `log_sigma_h_d` + `grad_log_sigma_h_d` (and the rest
    of the multi-horizon attention path, anchored on Stage 2 to fully
    replace the legacy `attention_pool` path).
  step_batched + evaluate_batched BCE callsites now thread
    `mha.log_sigma_h_d` and `mha.grad_log_sigma_h_d` through the
    11-arg kernel signature.

This commit keeps the legacy `attention_pool` callsite in place; the
Stage 2 commit will replace it with `mha.pool` + `mha.inv_pool` +
`mha.moe` and delete the `attn_*` fields entirely.

Verified locally: ml-alpha builds clean with the cuda feature,
bce_grad_finite_diff (4/4) PASS on RTX 3050.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-18 14:59:12 +02:00
jgrusewski
996e61b6ef rename(ml-alpha): MultiHorizonAttention (no version suffix in identifiers)
Removes the version suffix from the trainer-state bundle introduced
in 5aad1eb84:
  perception_v2_state.rs  → multi_horizon_attention.rs
  PerceptionV2State       → MultiHorizonAttention
  V2_HIDDEN_DIM            → MHA_HIDDEN_DIM
  V2_N_HORIZONS            → MHA_N_HORIZONS
  V2_N_EXPERTS             → MHA_N_EXPERTS
  V2_REGIME_DIM            → MHA_REGIME_DIM

Per the new memory pearl
feedback_single_source_of_truth_no_duplicates: source identifiers
never carry version suffixes — pick the proper conceptual name.

Compile-clean. The actual integration (replace legacy attention_pool
with this bundle as the SINGLE attention path) is the next commit;
this rename eliminates the naming violation in isolation so the
integration commit can focus on the structural replacement.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-18 14:35:08 +02:00
jgrusewski
5aad1eb846 feat(ml-alpha): PerceptionV2State bundle (axes A+B+C+D+E) [V9]
Bundles all v2 components into one cohesive trainer field that
PerceptionTrainer wires through in V10. Owns:

  (C) horizon_tokens + Q for the horizon-token attention pool
       + per-batch grad scratches + 2 AdamWs
  (E) inverted attention pool + saved attn + d_scores scratch
  (D) MoE gate weights + experts (W, b) + per-batch sparse-by-expert
       grad scratches + 3 AdamWs + top_e / gate_probs / aux_loss
  (A) log_sigma_h per-horizon Kendall scalar + AdamW (0.25× LR)
  (B) AnchorController (Wiener-α host-side) + anchor_l2 kernel +
       init snapshots of horizon_tokens, Q, experts_w, experts_b
       for the L2 anchor

Init scale: 1/√HIDDEN_DIM Xavier for horizon_tokens/Q/experts_W;
zeros for experts_b and log_sigma_h. Anchor controller bootstrap
uses ‖horizon_tokens_init‖₂ + ‖Q_init‖₂ + their total numel to
derive the signal-driven floor (no tuned constants).

zero_grads uses memset_zeros only — capture-safe.

Compile-clean. V10 wires this state into perception.rs::step_batched
forward / backward / AdamW.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-18 14:28:50 +02:00
jgrusewski
55aeddaebd feat(ml-alpha): anchor_l2 kernel + Wiener-α controller (v2 B) [V8]
L2 anchor regularization toward initialization (axis B). Anchors
horizon_tokens + Q + MoE experts toward their init values to prevent
the calibration drift observed in v1 (where val_loss climbed as α
opened past epoch 1 in 2 of 3 folds).

KERNEL (`anchor_l2_fwd_bwd`):
  loss_out = λ · Σ_i (p[i] − p_init[i])²
  grad_p[i] += 2λ · (p[i] − p_init[i])

  - Warp-shuffle reduce; one block per parameter group; strided thread
    loop over n. Cross-warp reduce uses one __syncthreads.
  - Coalesced grad write via stride loop.
  - λ passed as device-side [1]-buffer (host writes scalar before launch
    — capture-safe).

CONTROLLER (`trainer::anchor_controller::AnchorController`):
  - Signal-driven λ floor: λ_floor = ‖p_init‖ / (100 · √numel).
    Cross-fold-persistent per pearl_kelly_cap_signal_driven_floors.
  - Wiener-α smoother (α = diff_var / (diff_var + sample_var + ε))
    on val_loss change; α floored at 0.4 per
    pearl_wiener_alpha_floor_for_nonstationary.
  - λ blends toward target = |ema_change|·scale with α; floored at
    λ_floor per pearl_blend_formulas_must_have_permanent_floor.
  - First-observation bootstrap (sentinel state replaced directly on
    first step) per pearl_first_observation_bootstrap.
  - 4/4 unit tests PASS: signal-floor init, bootstrap returns floor,
    floor protection across 1000 steps, λ_max cap.

NUMGRAD VERIFICATION (RTX 3050 sm_86):
  anchor_l2_numgrad PASSES with closed-form parity (machine precision)
  and central-difference parity (4 random positions) within 5e-2 rel.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-18 14:26:31 +02:00
jgrusewski
11b96dac6a feat(ml-alpha): regime_moe_gate kernel + numgrad (v2 D) [V6]
Top-1 Mixture-of-Experts gate per Switch Transformer. Three kernels
in one .cu file:

  - regime_moe_gate_fwd: select top-1 expert from gate_logits, apply
    its [H, H] linear to fused_ctx → routed_ctx [B, N_H, H].
  - regime_moe_gate_bwd: chain-rule grads through the SELECTED
    expert's W and bias (sparse-by-expert scratches), plus
    d_fused_ctx accumulator. Inactive experts get zero contribution.
  - regime_moe_gate_aux: softmax of gate_logits + load-balancing
    auxiliary loss (frac · prob_mean × N_EXPERTS).

ARCHITECTURE:
  - N_EXPERTS = 4. Each expert is a [H, H] linear with bias.
  - Total expert params: 4 · 128 · 128 + 4 · 128 = 66 KB. Cheap.
  - STE on gate: gate logit grad is zero from the expert path (top-1
    is non-differentiable); the load-balance aux loss provides the
    differentiable signal that pushes routing toward balanced usage.

PERFORMANCE:
  - Grid (B, N_H, 1), block (HIDDEN_DIM). One block per (b, h).
  - Forward: each thread computes one output channel via a dot
    product over HIDDEN_DIM input dims (#pragma unroll 8).
  - Backward d_fused_ctx: each thread accumulates over d_out
    sequentially (HIDDEN_DIM iterations) since the weight matrix
    column is naturally aligned to the thread's d_in index.
  - Backward d_W/d_b scratches are sparse-by-expert; downstream
    reduce_axis0 collapses over (B, N_H).
  - Top-1 chosen by thread 0 per block, broadcast via shared mem.

NUMGRAD VERIFICATION (RTX 3050 sm_86):
  forward_matches_host_reference_and_backward_matches_numgrad
  PASSES 11 checks (4 on d_W, 3 on d_b, 4 on d_fused_ctx) within
  5e-2 rel / 5e-3 abs.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-18 14:21:59 +02:00
jgrusewski
d94696620d feat(ml-alpha): inverted_attention_pool kernel + numgrad (v2 E) [V3]
iTransformer-style cross-variate attention pass: each of HIDDEN_DIM
features becomes a "variate token" with its K-trajectory as embedding.

FORWARD:
  X_inv[h, k]    = ln_out[k, h]                       # transpose
  scores[h, j]   = inv_scale · Σ_k X_inv[h, k] · X_inv[j, k]
  attn[h, j]     = softmax_j(scores)
  pooled[h]      = Σ_j attn[h, j] · mean_k_X_inv[j]   # mean-K commutes out

BACKWARD: three independent chains into ln_out:
  - value path:  (1/K) · attn[h', my_h] · d_pooled[h']  (per-k constant)
  - query path:  inv_scale · Σ_j d_scores[my_h, j] · X_inv[j, k]
  - key path:    inv_scale · Σ_h' d_scores[h', my_h] · X_inv[h', k]
  Softmax bwd: d_scores[h, j] = attn · (d_attn - Σ_l attn · d_attn)

IMPLEMENTATION NOTES:
  - First attempt cached attn [H, H] = 64 KB in shared mem → tripped
    the 48 KB dynamic-shared limit on sm_86 (CUDA_ERROR_INVALID_VALUE).
  - Fixed by moving d_scores to a DRAM scratch buffer; shared mem
    holds only X_inv [H, K] (≤ 16 KB at K = 32). One block-wide barrier
    between the d_scores write and the value/query/key accumulation.
  - All per-batch slice writes; no atomicAdd, no cross-block race.
  - Pooled computation uses the mean-K commute (Σ_k attn · X_inv =
    attn · mean_k_X_inv), saving an entire H×K accumulation pass.

LOCAL VERIFICATION (RTX 3050 sm_86):
  forward_then_backward_matches_central_difference PASSES 6 numgrad
  checks on ln_out positions within 5e-2 rel / 5e-3 abs.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-18 14:16:26 +02:00
jgrusewski
e8f6c4721f feat(ml-alpha): horizon_token_attention_pool kernel + numgrad (v2 C) [V2]
Replaces the falsified per-horizon Q_h pool with a single shared
query Q over an extended key sequence [horizon_tokens; LN_b_out],
producing per-horizon outputs via TFT-style horizon-token mixing.

FORWARD:
  scores[i] = Σ_d Q[d] · ext[i, d]                      (i ∈ [0, N_H + K))
  attn      = softmax_i(scores)
  S[d]      = Σ_k attn[N_H + k] · ln_out[k, d]          (shared time agg)
  ctx[h, d] = attn[h] · horizon_tokens[h, d] + S[d]     (per-horizon out)

BACKWARD: full chain rule with softmax-centring; gradients to
horizon_tokens, Q, and ln_out via the saved attn weights.

NVIDIA-grade implementation per feedback_nvidia_grade_perf_for_kernels:
  - Warp-shuffle reduce (block_reduce_sum / block_reduce_max helpers)
    for all per-d dot products and softmax aggregates.
  - Cross-warp reduce uses exactly one __syncthreads.
  - Non-divergent shuffles: inactive lanes contribute 0 via ternary.
  - Block-per-batch + horizon-loop inside block → grad_ln_out += is
    race-free without atomicAdd.
  - Smem layout computed at launch: [s_attn(N_H+K); s_warp(N_WARPS);
    s_d_S(H) on bwd]. No over-allocation.

LOCAL VERIFICATION (RTX 3050 sm_86):
  forward_then_backward_matches_central_difference PASSES 12 numgrad
  checks (4 each on horizon_tokens / Q / ln_out) at 5e-2 rel / 5e-3
  abs envelope. First-try pass.

NOTE: .gitignore adjusted with narrow allow-rules for crates/ml-alpha/{
cuda,src,tests}/horizon_token_* paths — the broad "*token*" rule
intended for auth tokens was hiding these source files. Explicit
allow keeps the security rule intact while exempting these specific
files.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-18 14:09:45 +02:00
jgrusewski
679ab3f5eb feat(ml-alpha): Kendall sigma-weighted BCE kernel + numgrad (v2 A) [V7]
New `bce_multi_horizon_sigma_forward_backward` kernel implementing the
Kendall homoscedastic uncertainty weighting per spec axis A:

  raw_bce_h   = Σ_{i in h, m_i=1} L_i
  count_h     = #{i in h : m_i = 1}
  mean_bce_h  = raw_bce_h / count_h
  w_h         = base_weight_h / (2 · exp(2 · log_sigma_h))
  total_loss  = Σ_h [ w_h · mean_bce_h + log_sigma_h ]
  d L / d p_i           = m_i · (w_h / count_h) · (p − y) / (p (1 − p))
  d L / d log_sigma_h   = 1 − 2 · w_h · mean_bce_h

NVIDIA-grade implementation per feedback_nvidia_grade_perf_for_kernels:
  - Warp-shuffle reduction (`__shfl_xor_sync`) for both per-horizon
    sums and the global valid count, replacing block tree-reduce.
  - One `__syncthreads` for the cross-warp aggregate; no inner-loop
    barriers.
  - Non-divergent shuffles: inactive lanes contribute 0 via ternary,
    never via `if (tid < N) shuffle`.
  - Coalesced strided access in both forward and gradient passes.
  - Pre-compiled cubin via build.rs; no nvrtc.

Independent of the legacy `bce_loss_multi_horizon` kernel — that one
stays untouched so eval/smoke paths are unaffected. The v2 trainer
wires this kernel in via commit V10.

Standalone helper `bce_sigma_loss_and_grad_gpu` in `trainer::loss_sigma`
for numgrad parity tests. Three numgrad tests all PASS on RTX 3050
(sm_86) within 5e-2 rel / 5e-3 abs:
  - d_log_sigma_h ↔ central-difference (numgrad on log_sigma)
  - grad_probs    ↔ central-difference (8 random positions)
  - total_loss    ↔ closed-form reconstructed from mean_bce_per_h

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-18 13:35:26 +02:00
jgrusewski
41292303dc refactor(ml-alpha): remove per-horizon Q_h path (C21-C25 falsified) [V1]
3-fold A/B sweep 2026-05-18 at commit 83546b5c3 falsified the simple
per-horizon Q_h attention pool:
  mean_auc 0.7559 ± 0.0068  vs baseline 0.7749 ± 0.024  (Δ = -0.019)
  h6000    0.7588 ± 0.0049  vs baseline 0.7591 ± 0.018  (Δ = -0.0003)

best_epoch on val_loss = 1 in 2/3 folds → calibration drift as α opens;
no horizon-distribution shift toward h6000. The per-horizon path
spends capacity on directions that hurt log-likelihood without lifting
ranking quality.

V1 of the v2 redesign deletes the falsified path entirely (per
feedback_no_partial_refactor; v2 spec/plan committed earlier today
captures the migration). Files removed:
  cuda/per_horizon_attention_pool.cu
  cuda/per_horizon_residual_head.cu
  cuda/per_horizon_prob_blend.cu
  src/per_horizon_attention_pool.rs
  src/per_horizon_residual_head.rs
  src/trainer/per_horizon_state.rs
  tests/per_horizon_attention_pool_numgrad.rs
  tests/per_horizon_residual_head_numgrad.rs
  tests/per_horizon_full_pipeline_smoke.rs

perception.rs:
  - struct field `per_horizon` removed
  - new() initialization removed
  - step_batched section 4.5 (forward_with_blend) → reserved comment
  - step_batched section 5a (backward_through_blend) → reserved comment
  - step_batched section 9 (adamw_step) → reserved comment
  - existing 17 optimizer groups + BCE/attention-pool path untouched
  - reduce_axis0 kernel kept (still used by existing param-grad reducers)

build.rs KERNELS: dropped the 3 per_horizon entries.
lib.rs + trainer/mod.rs: dropped per_horizon module declarations.

Workspace compiles clean (cargo check -p ml-alpha). Next: V2 builds
the horizon_token_attention_pool kernel as the v2 replacement.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-18 13:26:45 +02:00
jgrusewski
4425a77844 plan(ml-alpha): v2 multi-horizon implementation plan (V1-V13)
Concrete TDD-driven commit map for the v2 spec
(2026-05-18-ml-alpha-v2-multi-horizon-design.md). Thirteen commits
ordered by dependency: delete falsified path, build new kernels with
numgrad parity (V2-V8), trainer state bundle (V9), wire into
PerceptionTrainer (V10), local smoke (V11), cluster smoke (V12), 3-fold
A/B (V13). Per-commit verification gates and explicit stop conditions.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-18 13:22:48 +02:00
jgrusewski
1c2ee1d7c3 spec(ml-alpha): v2 multi-horizon redesign (A+B+C+D+E integrated)
Integrated design spec for the post-A/B redesign: Kendall sigma BCE
(A), L2 anchor on horizon tokens + shared Q (B), horizon-token
K-prepend replacing per-horizon Q_h (C), regime-aware MoE gate (D),
and inverted-axis attention pass (E). Bundled per
pearl_no_deferrals_for_complementary_fixes — all five axes have
orthogonal architectural scope and independent kill criteria.

Spec drops the C21-C25 per-horizon Q_h path (falsified by sweep
2026-05-18: mean_auc -0.019 vs single-Q baseline) and migrates the
existing init buffers into the new horizon-tokens prefix.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-18 13:20:26 +02:00
jgrusewski
286ea26e2a perf(ml-alpha): warp-shuffle reduce in per-horizon kernels
Cluster A/B sweep with C25 wiring showed 86 s/epoch vs 17 s/epoch
baseline = ~5x regression. Root cause: per-horizon attention pool +
residual head used block tree-reduce with 8 __syncthreads per K-step
in a serialised K-loop, repeated H=5 times in both fwd and bwd =
~3200 barriers/step. Plus the prob_blend bwd reduce kernel ran with
a single thread per block, fully serialising over K*B.

Replacements:
- per_horizon_attention_pool fwd/bwd: introduce block_reduce_sum /
  block_reduce_max helpers using intra-warp __shfl_xor_sync +
  cross-warp shuffle (1 syncthread per K instead of 8). Smem shrinks
  to [K + N_WARPS] / [2K + N_WARPS].
- per_horizon_residual_head fwd: same warp-shuffle reduce pattern.
- per_horizon_prob_blend_reduce_alpha_residual: 1 thread → 1 warp
  per horizon, lane-strided reduction over K*B via shfl_xor_sync.
  Launch config updated to block_dim=(32,1,1).

Tricky bug found while implementing: the cross-warp reduce in the
residual head originally guarded `__shfl_xor_sync(0xffffffff, ...)`
with `if (tid < PHR_N_WARPS)`, leaving 28 of 32 lanes in warp 0
outside the call. Mask 0xffffffff requires all 32 lanes to
participate — divergence is UB and hung the full-pipeline smoke on
Ampere/Ada. Fix: read s_warp via ternary into all 32 lanes, then
shuffle inside `if (tid < 32)`. Matches the pattern used in
block_reduce_sum.

Verified locally on RTX 3050 (sm_86): per_horizon_attention_pool
numgrad, per_horizon_residual_head numgrad, and
per_horizon_full_pipeline_smoke (zero-init identity + non-zero
end-to-end) all PASS.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-18 13:15:33 +02:00
jgrusewski
83546b5c37 fix(ml-alpha): drop synchronize() in per-horizon pool + head bindings
After adaf275af removed the synchronizes in PerHorizonTrainState's
forward_with_blend / backward_through_blend, smoke alpha-perception-9l6hw
still failed with CUDA_ERROR_STREAM_CAPTURE_UNSUPPORTED. Root cause:
PerHorizonAttentionPool::{forward,backward} and PerHorizonResidualHead::
{forward,backward} each end with their own self.stream.synchronize(),
which is illegal during CUDA Graph capture.

Same fix: drop the four synchronizes. Same-stream issue order ensures
the next kernel sees the previous one's output. Capture invariant
preserved.

Verified locally: per_horizon_full_pipeline_smoke (2/2), attention pool
numgrad (1/1), residual head numgrad (1/1) all pass on RTX 3050.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-18 11:32:27 +02:00
jgrusewski
adaf275af3 fix(ml-alpha): C25 per-horizon path graph-capture safety
Four code paths in PerHorizonTrainState violated CUDA Graph capture
invariants and tripped CUDA_ERROR_STREAM_CAPTURE_UNSUPPORTED on smoke
alpha-perception-qk2p9:

1. stream.synchronize() inside forward_with_blend (illegal in capture)
2. stream.synchronize() inside backward_through_blend (idem)
3. reduce_per_batch_scratches_to_shared used host-side vec allocations
   + memcpy_dtoh + CPU summation + memcpy_htod (forbidden during
   capture per pearl_no_host_branches_in_captured_graph)
4. zero_grads allocated host zero vectors + memcpy_htod each step
   (idem)

Fix:
- Remove both synchronizes; same-stream issue order is sufficient.
- Replace host-side reduction with three reduce_axis0 GPU kernel
  launches (q_h, w_res, bias_res). PerHorizonTrainState now owns its
  own reduce_axis0 cubin handle.
- Replace host-zero memcpy with stream.memset_zeros for all nine
  gradient buffers plus d_alpha_reduced.

Verified locally: per_horizon_full_pipeline_smoke (2/2) and both
numgrad parity tests (attention pool + residual head) pass on RTX 3050.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-18 11:23:10 +02:00
jgrusewski
f50b466f77 feat(ml-alpha): PerceptionTrainer wires C21+C22 fwd+bwd+AdamW (C25)
The per-horizon attention pool from C21+C22 is now fully integrated
into step_batched's hot loop. Forward and backward both flow; AdamW
updates all four new parameter groups (Q_h, w_res, bias_res, α) every
training step. At α=0 init the contribution is byte-identical to
baseline; training discovers whether α should grow.

New kernel: cuda/per_horizon_prob_blend.cu
  per_horizon_prob_blend_fwd
    Reads logit_per_k_d (already stored by GRN forward) +
    sigmoid(logit_baseline + tanh(α[h]) * residual[b, h]) →
    overwrites probs_per_k_d in place. At α=0: r_contrib=0, output
    == sigmoid(logit_baseline) == probs_baseline → bit-identical.

  per_horizon_prob_blend_reduce_alpha_residual
    Reads probs_per_k (= p_final, post-blend) + grad_probs_per_k
    (= ∂L/∂p_final from BCE) and computes:
      d_logit[k,b,h] = grad_probs[k,b,h] * p_final * (1 - p_final)
      d_residual[b,h] = tanh(α[h]) * Σ_k d_logit[k,b,h]
      d_alpha[h]      = sech²(α[h]) * Σ_{k,b} d_logit[k,b,h] * residual[b,h]
    No separate prob_blend_bwd needed — chain-rule equivalence
    ∂L/∂logit_baseline = ∂L/∂r_contrib (both flow through the same
    sigmoid derivative) means the existing GRN backward is UNCHANGED.

trainer/per_horizon_state.rs extensions:
  forward_with_blend(ln_b_out, logit_per_k, probs_per_k)
    Pool fwd → context_h; head fwd → residual; prob_blend fwd
    in-place rewrites probs_per_k.

  backward_through_blend(probs_per_k, grad_probs_per_k, ln_b_out,
                         grad_ln_b_out_target)
    Reduce kernel → d_residual + d_alpha. Then:
      head bwd  → d_w_res_scratch, d_bias_res_scratch, d_context.
      pool bwd  → d_q_h_scratch, += grad_h_enriched_seq_d.
    Per-batch scratches reduced to shared grads host-side
    (n_batch ≤ 64 → sub-millisecond on host).

  adamw_step()
    Steps the four optimizers using the shared grad buffers.

  zero_grads()
    Called once per step before forward to clear scratch.

trainer/perception.rs step_batched integration:
  ── 4.5 (after GRN K-loop, before BCE): zero_grads + forward_with_blend
       overwrites probs_per_k_d with p_final.
  ── 5  (existing BCE consumes probs_per_k_d as today; grad_probs is
        now ∂L/∂p_final automatically).
  ── 5a (after BCE, before ISV-lambda + heads bwd): backward_through_blend.
       Existing GRN bwd path is UNTOUCHED — the chain rule absorbs
       the bias.
  ── 9  (after existing 17 AdamW group steps): per_horizon.adamw_step
       updates Q_h, w_res, bias_res, α.

Verification:
  - 34 ml-alpha lib tests still green.
  - Per-horizon kernel numgrad parity (C21, C22) still green.
  - Per-horizon end-to-end pipeline smoke (C23, including the
    alpha=0 byte-identity invariant) still green.
  - Full workspace builds clean.

Closes the kernels+wiring portion of #203 (per-horizon attention pool
kernels + wiring). What remains (#204): 30-epoch × 3-fold A/B vs
single-Q baseline. The branch is ready for that sweep when GPU time
is budgeted; the implementation is structurally adoption-safe
(α=0 → identity to baseline) so it can be merged before the A/B if
desired.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-18 11:02:21 +02:00
jgrusewski
5eb6567c4c feat(ml-alpha): PerceptionTrainer per-horizon trainer state (C24)
Allocates the device buffers + AdamW optimizers + kernel bindings for
the per-horizon attention-pool training path from C21 + C22, bundled
into a single PerceptionTrainer.per_horizon field.

crates/ml-alpha/src/trainer/per_horizon_state.rs (NEW):
  PerHorizonTrainState — owns:
    Learnable params (zero-init for α + bias, Xavier-scale for Q_h,
      0.1× scale for w_res):
      q_h_d        [N_HORIZONS, HIDDEN_DIM]  — attention queries
      w_res_d      [N_HORIZONS, HIDDEN_DIM]  — residual head weights
      bias_res_d   [N_HORIZONS]              — residual bias
      alpha_d      [N_HORIZONS]              — learnable gate (init 0)
    Forward intermediates (per-batch):
      context_d           [B, N_HORIZONS, HIDDEN_DIM]
      attn_weights_d      [B, N_HORIZONS, K]
      residual_d          [B, N_HORIZONS]
    Backward grad scratch + reduced grads + AdamW state.
    Kernel bindings: PerHorizonAttentionPool + PerHorizonResidualHead.

  PerHorizonTrainState::new(dev, n_batch, k_seq, lr, seed)
    Allocates all buffers, runs Xavier-style init, constructs four
    AdamW optimizers (q_h, w_res, bias_res at param-LR; α at 0.25× LR
    per spec §5 open Q2 default — slow gate ramp). Captures the seed
    via wrapping_add(0xA110C00A) from cfg.seed for determinism.

  PerHorizonTrainState::zero_grads()
    Clears all grad-scratch buffers between training steps.

trainer/mod.rs:
  pub mod per_horizon_state — module export.

trainer/perception.rs:
  PerceptionTrainer gains one field:
    pub per_horizon: PerHorizonTrainState
  Initialised in new() with cfg.n_batch + cfg.seq_len + cfg.lr_cfc.

α-gate init=0 ⇒ tanh(0)=0 ⇒ contribution to per-batch logits is exactly
0 at step 0 (per C23 alpha_zero_init_is_identity_to_baseline byte-equality
test). Adopting this commit produces bit-identical training behaviour
to the previous commit until C25 wires the forward+backward calls into
step_batched; even then the α=0 init means a one-epoch smoke against
existing baseline should match within FP rounding noise.

All 34 ml-alpha lib tests + 4 per-horizon GPU tests (numgrad pair +
end-to-end pipeline pair) green.

Next:
  C25 — forward + backward integration into step_batched. The new path
        runs as ADDITIONAL kernel launches before/after the existing
        captured graph (not inside it) so the graph stays unchanged
        and the integration risk is contained.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-18 10:47:25 +02:00
jgrusewski
69c64f2266 test(ml-alpha): per-horizon pipeline end-to-end smoke + α-gate (C23)
Composes the C21 + C22 kernels with a host-side learnable α-gate to
prove the full per-horizon contribution path works end-to-end without
yet doing the captured-graph integration in PerceptionTrainer.

Pipeline:
  LNb [B, K, HIDDEN_DIM]
   → per_horizon_attention_pool_fwd  → context_h [B, N_HORIZONS, HIDDEN_DIM]
   → per_horizon_residual_head_fwd   → residual  [B, N_HORIZONS]
   → final[b, h] = baseline[b, h] + tanh(α[h]) * residual[b, h]

Two tests cover the critical invariants for adoption-safety:

  alpha_zero_init_is_identity_to_baseline
    With α = [0, 0, 0, 0, 0] and any random Q_h / w_res / bias_res,
    final_logit MUST be bit-identical to baseline_logit (because
    tanh(0) = 0). Verified via to_bits() byte equality. Proves that
    initialising the new variant with α=0 makes it a strict superset
    of the existing path — switching to AttentionPoolVariant::PerHorizon
    cannot regress before any training has happened.

  alpha_nonzero_changes_output_and_grads_flow_end_to_end
    With α = [0.5, -0.3, 0.2, -0.1, 0.4]:
      * final ≠ baseline (residual contributing) ✓
      * all final logits finite ✓
      * full backward chain (residual_head_bwd → attention_pool_bwd)
        produces finite d_Q_h_scratch + finite d_LNb with at least
        one non-zero entry in each → gradients flow back to both the
        attention queries and the LN_b input ✓

This closes the kernel-side correctness story. The remaining
integration commits (C24+) are operational:

  C24: extend CheckpointV1 → V2 (add q_h, w_res, bias_res, alpha
       fields; V1 files load as Variant::SharedQuery)
  C25: PerceptionTrainer wiring — allocate the device buffers, fold
       attention + residual + gate into the captured graph, plumb
       gradients into AdamW's param list
  C26: 1-epoch smoke (assert no NaN, loss decreases vs baseline) —
       needs real training data + multi-GPU time
  C27: 30-epoch × 3-fold A/B (task #204) — decision gate per
       docs/superpowers/specs/2026-05-18-per-horizon-attention-pool-design.md
       §0 falsifiable claim

C24-C25 are 1-2 day work even when carefully scoped; C26-C27 need
real GPU-hours + result analysis. C21-C23 land the validatable kernel
correctness piece without committing to that time investment yet.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-18 10:38:24 +02:00
jgrusewski
8c335caef7 feat(ml-alpha): per-horizon residual head kernel + numgrad parity (C22)
Companion kernel to C21's per_horizon_attention_pool. Computes a
per-horizon scalar residual from each horizon's context vector:

  residual[b, h] = Σ_d w_res[h, d] * context_h[b, h, d] + bias_res[h]

Designed to be added (behind a learnable α-gate) to the existing
multi_horizon_heads logit output — keeps the existing GRN head kernel
completely unchanged. The per-horizon attention pool's contribution
flows through this lightweight projection without weight-shape
changes elsewhere or checkpoint-V2-bumping.

Path A integration sketch (deferred to follow-up commit C23):
  alpha_logit_per_horizon = existing_head(h_K)[h]            # from current path
                         + tanh(α[h]) * residual_kernel(context_h)[h]
where α[h] is a learnable 5-vector init'd to 0 (no effect at start).
Training discovers per-horizon whether the residual contributes.
This is a strict superset of the existing path — α=0 → bit-identical
to today.

Backward kernel produces:
  d_w_res        — per-block scratch [B, N_HORIZONS, HIDDEN_DIM]
                   for host reduce_axis0 → shared [N_HORIZONS, HIDDEN_DIM]
  d_bias_res     — per-block scratch [B, N_HORIZONS], same reduction
  d_context_h    — per-batch indexed; += chained with attention bwd

Single-writer discipline preserved (no atomicAdd per
feedback_no_atomicadd.md); horizon loop inside the per-batch block.

Numgrad parity test:
  - B=3, N_HORIZONS=5, HIDDEN_DIM=128 fixture.
  - Loss = Σ residual_out (so d_residual = 1).
  - Probes 8 random w_res indices, all 5 bias_res entries, 8 random
    context_h indices via central-difference at ±eps=1e-2.
  - All within 5e-2 rel-tol or 5e-3 abs-floor.
  - Passes on RTX 3050.

Same scope discipline as C21: kernel + binding + numgrad first;
trainer wiring + α-gate + smoke training + A/B sweep follow once
both kernels are individually validated (now done).

Closes the second kernel-correctness portion of #203. Remaining:
  C23: trainer wiring (capture attn_pool fwd into the graph; sum
       residual into existing head output with α-gate)
  C24: CheckpointV1 → V2 bump (add q_h, w_res, bias_res, alpha fields)
  C25: 1-epoch smoke (assert no NaN, loss decreases vs baseline)
  C26: 30-epoch × 3-fold A/B (#204) — decision gate per spec §0

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-18 10:36:42 +02:00
jgrusewski
edc449eecf feat(ml-alpha): per-horizon attention pool kernel + numgrad parity (C21)
First implementation slice of the per-horizon attention pool design
(docs/superpowers/specs/2026-05-18-per-horizon-attention-pool-design.md).
Lands the kernel + Rust binding + numgrad verification; downstream
wiring into PerceptionTrainer's captured graph + CheckpointV2 bump +
A/B sweep are follow-up commits gated on this proving correctness.

Kernel (cuda/per_horizon_attention_pool.cu):

  per_horizon_attention_pool_fwd
    Q_h[N_HORIZONS, HIDDEN_DIM] × LNb[B, K, HIDDEN_DIM]
      → context_h[B, N_HORIZONS, HIDDEN_DIM]
        attn_h_weights[B, N_HORIZONS, K]
    Per-block math identical to the single-Q variant, looped over
    N_HORIZONS sequentially within each batch's block. Grid stays
    (B, 1, 1) so backward grad_ln_out writes are race-free
    (per feedback_no_atomicadd.md — no cross-block contention).
    Per-batch shared mem ~k_seq + BLOCK + HIDDEN_DIM floats.

  per_horizon_attention_pool_bwd
    Same chain-rule pattern as attention_pool_bwd but with the horizon
    loop inside the block: each (b, h) slice updates grad_ln_out in
    place (sequential horizon accumulation), grad_Q_h is written as
    per-block scratch [B, N_HORIZONS, HIDDEN_DIM] for host reduce.
    Single-writer discipline preserved.

Rust binding (src/per_horizon_attention_pool.rs):
  PerHorizonAttentionPool::{new, forward, backward}. Self-contained;
  doesn't yet touch PerceptionTrainer or CfcTrunk. Loads the cubin
  via the standard env!("OUT_DIR") path. Dynamic shared-mem byte
  count computed per launch from k_seq.

Numgrad parity test (tests/per_horizon_attention_pool_numgrad.rs):
  - B=2, K=8, HIDDEN_DIM=128, N_HORIZONS=5 fixture.
  - Loss = Σ context_h (so d_context = 1 everywhere — clean analytical).
  - Backward kernel produces analytical grads; central-difference of
    forward kernel at ±eps=1e-2 across 8 random Q_h indices + 8 random
    LNb indices verifies analytical matches CD within 5e-2 rel-tol or
    5e-3 abs-floor.
  - Passes on RTX 3050.

build.rs picks up the new .cu file automatically via the existing
KERNELS list; cubin compiles cleanly at sm_86 + sm_89.

Same scope discipline as Phase 2D.2 (VSN numgrad) — kernel correctness
first, integration second. The follow-up commit set per the spec §3
appendix:
  C22: extend multi_horizon_heads.cu signature to accept per-horizon
       context input + bump head_w shape to [N_HORIZONS, 2*HIDDEN_DIM]
  C23: wire PerHorizonAttentionPool into PerceptionTrainer + CfcTrunk
       captured graph behind AttentionPoolVariant config flag
  C24: CheckpointV1 → V2 bump with discriminant + optional q_h field
  C25: smoke training (one epoch, no NaN, loss decreases)
  C26: 30-epoch × 3-fold A/B sweep (#204) — decision gate per spec §0

Closes the kernel-correctness portion of #203.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-18 10:32:16 +02:00
jgrusewski
f5632649ca spec(ml-alpha): per-horizon attention pool design (C20)
Captures the brainstormed "alternative attention pool variants"
follow-on from the original real-LOB integration brainstorm (Axis 1,
deferred from the LOB workstream as a separate model-side spec).

Design:
  Replace shared learned query Q[HIDDEN_DIM] with per-horizon queries
  Q_h[N_HORIZONS, HIDDEN_DIM]. Per-horizon softmax + context vectors
  feed multi-horizon heads directly (PATH A) — each horizon attends
  to a different part of the K=6000 LN_b output sequence. CfC k=0
  state is initialised by the MEAN of per-horizon contexts so the
  K-loop recurrence + state amplification (per
  pearl_state_amplifies_short_horizon_into_long_horizon) survives.
  Heads consume per-horizon context concat CfC h_K (residual) with a
  default 75/25 weight split.

Falsifiable claim (§0): A/B-tested win means h6000 mean_auc lifts by
≥ +0.01 absolute OR per-horizon distribution shifts toward short
horizons (h1000, h300) with no net h6000 loss. The 3-fold variance
band on the current architecture (mean_auc 0.7749 ± 0.024) means a
+0.01 lift is within noise — a meaningful effect needs ≥ +0.024 or
qualitative distributional shift.

Two new kernels (per_horizon_attention_pool_fwd + _bwd) + signature
extension on multi_horizon_heads_{fwd,bwd}. Variant-toggle config flag
(SharedQuery vs PerHorizonQuery) keeps the existing path fully
functional; new variant is opt-in. CheckpointV1 → V2 with explicit
discriminant + optional q_h field; V1 files load as SharedQuery, new
V2 training writes the discriminant.

Three validation rings:
  1. Per-(b,h) numgrad parity at K=16
  2. One-epoch smoke (no NaN, loss decreases)
  3. 30-epoch × 3-fold A/B (#204) — decision gate per §0 falsifiable claim

Implementation explicitly deferred. The decision to invest depends on
(a) GPU time budget (~3-6 hrs on L40S × 5 GPUs for the A/B), (b)
whether per-horizon cost-frontier sweeps (#202 follow-ups) surface
viable horizons beyond h6000 that would benefit from per-horizon
specialisation, and (c) the 3-fold variance noise floor making the
expected effect size visible.

Next step when ready: invoke superpowers:writing-plans against this
spec for the ~6-8 commit implementation plan.

Closes the "good to have" question from the recent brainstorm with a
concrete decision framework rather than ad-hoc implementation.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-18 10:20:38 +02:00
jgrusewski
62b1fc0965 infra(argo): lob-backtest-sweep workflow + argo-lob-sweep.sh (C19)
Cluster fan-out for the `fxt-backtest sweep` single-machine path.
Reads the same grid YAML format as the binary; runs each cell on a
dedicated GPU pod in parallel; aggregates at the end on a CPU pod.

infra/k8s/argo/lob-backtest-sweep-template.yaml:
  WorkflowTemplate `lob-backtest-sweep` with three job templates:
    ensure-binary  — cache-or-compile fxt-backtest by short-SHA into
                     /mnt/training-data/bin/<sha>/. Mirrors the
                     train-multi-seed-template.yaml ensure-binary
                     shape but for a single binary.
    run-cell       — single GPU pod (ci-training-l40s default per
                     feedback_default_to_l40s_pool.md). Receives
                     cell-name + every Run arg via inputs.parameters.
                     Writes artifacts to <sweep-root>/<sweep-tag>/<cell>/.
    aggregate      — CPU pod runs `fxt-backtest aggregate <sweep-dir>`
                     producing aggregate.parquet + pareto_frontier.json
                     at the sweep root.
  DAG marker `# __SWEEP_CELLS__` replaced at submission time with N
  WorkflowTask stanzas (one per cell), and the aggregate's
  `dependencies: [ensure-binary]` is rewritten to include every
  run-cell-* dep — so aggregate waits for ALL cells.

scripts/argo-lob-sweep.sh:
  Companion submission script following the argo-train.sh pattern.
  Parses the grid YAML via python3 + PyYAML (no `yq` dependency —
  yq isn't used elsewhere in foxhunt scripts; python3+PyYAML is
  universal in our CI images). Emits per-cell WorkflowTask stanzas
  + aggregate dependency list, awks them into the template, then
  `kubectl apply` + `argo submit`. Supports --dry-run for offline
  rendering and --watch for live log following.

Defaults match the spec / pearl set:
  - sm_89 / ci-training-l40s default (override via --gpu-pool
    ci-training-h100 for sm_90 + 80 GB)
  - data root /mnt/training-data/futures-baseline/ES.FUT
  - sweep results under /mnt/training-data/sweeps/lob-backtest/<tag>/
  - sweep-tag defaults to <basename of grid>-<short-sha>

Verified locally:
  - bash -n syntax-check passes
  - --help renders
  - --dry-run against the existing
    config/ml/sweep_decision_stride_example.yaml renders a valid
    workflow with 4 cells + correct aggregate dependency list

Live submission is operational work that needs cluster access to
verify; the rendered YAML follows the same conventions as the
existing argo-train.sh workflows that ship in this repo.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-18 10:18:09 +02:00